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Elevation-dependent intensification of fire danger in the western United States

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Reza Alizadeh

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    McGill University
    University of Quebec in Montreal)

  • John T. Abatzoglou

    (University of California, Merced)

  • Jan Adamowski

    (McGill University)

  • Arash Modaresi Rad

    (Boise State University)

  • Amir AghaKouchak

    (University of California
    University of California)

  • Francesco S. R. Pausata

    (University of Quebec in Montreal)

  • Mojtaba Sadegh

    (Boise State University)

Abstract

Studies have identified elevation-dependent warming trends, but investigations of such trends in fire danger are absent in the literature. Here, we demonstrate that while there have been widespread increases in fire danger across the mountainous western US from 1979 to 2020, trends were most acute at high-elevation regions above 3000 m. The greatest increase in the number of days conducive to large fires occurred at 2500–3000 m, adding 63 critical fire danger days between 1979 and 2020. This includes 22 critical fire danger days occurring outside the warm season (May–September). Furthermore, our findings indicate increased elevational synchronization of fire danger in western US mountains, which can facilitate increased geographic opportunities for ignitions and fire spread that further complicate fire management operations. We hypothesize that several physical mechanisms underpinned the observed trends, including elevationally disparate impacts of earlier snowmelt, intensified land-atmosphere feedbacks, irrigation, and aerosols, in addition to widespread warming/drying.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Alizadeh & John T. Abatzoglou & Jan Adamowski & Arash Modaresi Rad & Amir AghaKouchak & Francesco S. R. Pausata & Mojtaba Sadegh, 2023. "Elevation-dependent intensification of fire danger in the western United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37311-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kat J. Bormann & Ross D. Brown & Chris Derksen & Thomas H. Painter, 2018. "Estimating snow-cover trends from space," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 924-928, November.
    2. Amir AghaKouchak & Laurie S. Huning & Felicia Chiang & Mojtaba Sadegh & Farshid Vahedifard & Omid Mazdiyasni & Hamed Moftakhari & Iman Mallakpour, 2018. "How do natural hazards cascade to cause disasters?," Nature, Nature, vol. 561(7724), pages 458-460, September.
    3. Imtiaz Rangwala & James Miller, 2012. "Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 527-547, October.
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