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Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Zubler
  • Andreas Fischer
  • Mark Liniger
  • Mischa Croci-Maspoli
  • Simon Scherrer
  • Christof Appenzeller

Abstract

There is a growing need of the climate change impact modeling and adaptation community to have more localized climate change scenario information available over complex topography such as in Switzerland. A gridded dataset of expected future climate change signals for seasonal averages of daily mean temperature and precipitation in Switzerland is presented. The basic scenarios are taken from the CH2011 initiative. In CH2011, a Bayesian framework was applied to obtain probabilistic scenarios for three regions within Switzerland. Here, the results for two additional Alpine sub-regions are presented. The regional estimates have then been downscaled onto a regular latitude-longitude grid with a resolution of 0.02° or roughly 2 km. The downscaling procedure is based on the spatial structure of the climate change signals as simulated by the underlying regional climate models and relies on a Kriging with external drift using height as auxiliary predictor. The considered emission scenarios are A1B, A2 and the mitigation scenario RCP3PD. The new dataset shows an expected warming of about 1 to 6 °C until the end of the 21st century, strongly depending on the scenario and the lead time. Owing to a large vertical gradient, the warming is about 1 °C stronger in the Alps than in the Swiss lowlands. In case of precipitation, the projection uncertainty is large and in most seasons precipitation can increase or decrease. In summer a distinct decrease of precipitation can be found, again strongly depending on the emission scenario. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Zubler & Andreas Fischer & Mark Liniger & Mischa Croci-Maspoli & Simon Scherrer & Christof Appenzeller, 2014. "Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 237-252, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:2:p:237-252
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1144-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elias Zubler & Simon Scherrer & Mischa Croci-Maspoli & Mark Liniger & Christof Appenzeller, 2014. "Key climate indices in Switzerland; expected changes in a future climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 255-271, March.
    2. Imtiaz Rangwala & James Miller, 2012. "Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 527-547, October.
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    1. Manzoor Hussain Memon & Rafiq Ahmed, 2022. "Multi-topographical landscape: comparative vulnerability of climate-induced disaster-prone rural area of Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1575-1602, March.

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