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Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón

    (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas
    Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt)

  • Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez

    (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas)

  • Heidi Huntrieser

    (Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt)

  • Patrick Jöckel

    (Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt)

Abstract

Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón & Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez & Heidi Huntrieser & Patrick Jöckel, 2023. "Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36500-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Declan L. Finney & Ruth M. Doherty & Oliver Wild & David S. Stevenson & Ian A. MacKenzie & Alan M. Blyth, 2018. "A projected decrease in lightning under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 210-213, March.
    2. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
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