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Bimodality and alternative equilibria do not help explain long-term patterns in shallow lake chlorophyll-a

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas A. Davidson

    (Aarhus University
    Aarhus University)

  • Carl D. Sayer

    (University College London)

  • Erik Jeppesen

    (Aarhus University
    Aarhus University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Middle East Technical University)

  • Martin Søndergaard

    (Aarhus University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Torben L. Lauridsen

    (Aarhus University
    Aarhus University
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Liselotte S. Johansson

    (Aarhus University)

  • Ambroise Baker

    (Teesside University)

  • Daniel Graeber

    (Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ)

Abstract

Since its inception, the theory of alternative equilibria in shallow lakes has evolved and been applied to an ever wider range of ecological and socioecological systems. The theory posits the existence of two alternative stable states or equilibria, which in shallow lakes are characterised by either clear water with abundant plants or turbid water where phytoplankton dominate. Here, we used data simulations and real-world data sets from Denmark and north-eastern USA (902 lakes in total) to examine the relationship between shallow lake phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a) and nutrient concentrations across a range of timescales. The data simulations demonstrated that three diagnostic tests could reliably identify the presence or absence of alternative equilibria. The real-world data accorded with data simulations where alternative equilibria were absent. Crucially, it was only as the temporal scale of observation increased (>3 years) that a predictable linear relationship between nutrient concentration and chlorophyll-a was evident. Thus, when a longer term perspective is taken, the notion of alternative equilibria is not required to explain the response of chlorophyll-a to nutrient enrichment which questions the utility of the theory for explaining shallow lake response to, and recovery from, eutrophication.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Davidson & Carl D. Sayer & Erik Jeppesen & Martin Søndergaard & Torben L. Lauridsen & Liselotte S. Johansson & Ambroise Baker & Daniel Graeber, 2023. "Bimodality and alternative equilibria do not help explain long-term patterns in shallow lake chlorophyll-a," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36043-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36043-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shiquan Ren & Hong Lai & Wenjing Tong & Mostafa Aminzadeh & Xuezhang Hou & Shenghan Lai, 2010. "Nonparametric bootstrapping for hierarchical data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1487-1498.
    2. Marten Scheffer & Jordi Bascompte & William A. Brock & Victor Brovkin & Stephen R. Carpenter & Vasilis Dakos & Hermann Held & Egbert H. van Nes & Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara, 2009. "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7260), pages 53-59, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duncan A. O’Brien & Smita Deb & Gideon Gal & Stephen J. Thackeray & Partha S. Dutta & Shin-ichiro S. Matsuzaki & Linda May & Christopher F. Clements, 2023. "Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Daniel Graeber & Mark J. McCarthy & Tom Shatwell & Dietrich Borchardt & Erik Jeppesen & Martin Søndergaard & Torben L. Lauridsen & Thomas A. Davidson, 2024. "Consistent stoichiometric long-term relationships between nutrients and chlorophyll-a across shallow lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.

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