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Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

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  • John P DeLong
  • Oskar Burger

Abstract

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Suggested Citation

  • John P DeLong & Oskar Burger, 2015. "Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0130547
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0130547
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Marwa M. El-Dalatony & El-Sayed Salama & Mayur B. Kurade & Sedky H. A. Hassan & Sang-Eun Oh & Sunjoon Kim & Byong-Hun Jeon, 2017. "Utilization of Microalgal Biofractions for Bioethanol, Higher Alcohols, and Biodiesel Production: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Maitri Verma & Alok Kumar Verma & A. K. Misra, 2021. "Mathematical modeling and optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions from energy sector," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13919-13944, September.
    5. Marco Casazza & Francesco Gonella & Gengyuan Liu & Antonio Proto & Renato Passaro, 2021. "Physical Constraints on Global Social-Ecological Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-25, December.
    6. Maitri Verma & Alok Kumar Verma, 2024. "Modeling the Impact of Renewable Energy Technologies on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Mitigation," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 1027-1053, October.
    7. Carey W. King, 2016. "Information Theory to Assess Relations Between Energy and Structure of the U.S. Economy Over Time," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-33, December.

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