IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-32755-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Herrmann

    (dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse; Università degli Studi di Napoli ‘Federico II’)

  • Ester Piegari

    (dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse; Università degli Studi di Napoli ‘Federico II’)

  • Warner Marzocchi

    (dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse; Università degli Studi di Napoli ‘Federico II’)

Abstract

The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b-value, controls the relative rate of small and large earthquakes. Resolving spatiotemporal variations of the b-value is critical to understanding the earthquake occurrence process and improving earthquake forecasting. However, this variation is not well understood. Here we present remarkable MFD variability during the complex 2016/17 central Italy sequence using a high-resolution earthquake catalog. Isolating seismically active volumes (‘clusters’) reveals that the MFD differed in nearby clusters, varied or remained constant in time depending on the cluster, and increased in b-value in the cluster where the largest earthquake eventually occurred. These findings suggest that the fault system’s heterogeneity and complexity influence the MFD. Our findings raise the question “b-value of what?”: interpreting and using MFD variability needs a spatiotemporal scale that is physically meaningful, like the one proposed here.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Herrmann & Ester Piegari & Warner Marzocchi, 2022. "Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32755-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32755-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32755-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-32755-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory C. Beroza & Margarita Segou & S. Mostafa Mousavi, 2021. "Machine learning and earthquake forecasting—next steps," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-3, December.
    2. Laura Gulia & Stefan Wiemer, 2019. "Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks," Nature, Nature, vol. 574(7777), pages 193-199, October.
    3. Danijel Schorlemmer & Stefan Wiemer & Max Wyss, 2005. "Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7058), pages 539-542, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. C. Collettini & M. R. Barchi & N. Paola & F. Trippetta & E. Tinti, 2022. "Rock and fault rheology explain differences between on fault and distributed seismicity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Satoshi Matsumoto & Yoshihisa Iio & Shinichi Sakai & Aitaro Kato, 2024. "Strength dependency of frequency–magnitude distribution in earthquakes and implications for stress state criticality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. C. Collettini & M. R. Barchi & N. Paola & F. Trippetta & E. Tinti, 2022. "Rock and fault rheology explain differences between on fault and distributed seismicity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Matteo Taroni & Giorgio Vocalelli & Andrea De Polis, 2021. "Gutenberg–Richter B-Value Time Series Forecasting: A Weighted Likelihood Approach," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-9, August.
    4. Matteo Picozzi & Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, 2021. "Forecasting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes by Recurrent Neural Network," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Futoshi Yamashita & Eiichi Fukuyama & Shiqing Xu & Hironori Kawakata & Kazuo Mizoguchi & Shigeru Takizawa, 2021. "Two end-member earthquake preparations illuminated by foreshock activity on a meter-scale laboratory fault," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. F. A. Nava & V. H. Márquez-Ramírez & F. R. Zúñiga & C. Lomnitz, 2017. "Gutenberg–Richter b-value determination and large-magnitudes sampling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 1-11, May.
    7. Huiling Zhou & Hejun Su & Hui Zhang & Chenhua Li, 2017. "Correlations between soil gas and seismic activity in the Generalized Haiyuan Fault Zone, north-central China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 763-776, January.
    8. A. Singh & Indrajit Roy & Santosh Kumar & J. Kayal, 2015. "Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: b-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 33-49, May.
    9. Asher, Eitan E. & Havlin, Shlomo & Moshel, Shay & Ashkenazy, Yosef, 2023. "Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Laurini, Fabrizio & Pauli, Francesco, 2009. "Smoothing sample extremes: The mixed model approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(11), pages 3842-3854, September.
    11. J. L. Amaro-Mellado & A. Morales-Esteban & F. Martínez-Álvarez, 2018. "Mapping of seismic parameters of the Iberian Peninsula by means of a geographic information system," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(3), pages 739-758, September.
    12. Biton, Dionessa C. & Tarun, Anjali B. & Batac, Rene C., 2020. "Comparing spatio-temporal networks of intermittent avalanche events: Experiment, model, and empirical data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Saman Yaghmaei-Sabegh & Gholamreza Ostadi-Asl, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of b-value in Gutenberg–Richter relationship: a sample size reduction approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1783-1797, February.
    14. Mendy Bengoubou-Valérius & Dominique Gibert, 2013. "Bootstrap determination of the reliability of b-values: an assessment of statistical estimators with synthetic magnitude series," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 443-459, January.
    15. Pastén, Denisse & Pavez-Orrego, Claudia, 2023. "Multifractal time evolution for intraplate earthquakes recorded in southern Norway during 1980–2021," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. Daolong Chen & Changgen Xia & Huini Liu & Xiling Liu & Kun Du, 2022. "Research on b Value Estimation Based on Apparent Amplitude-Frequency Distribution in Rock Acoustic Emission Tests," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-17, September.
    17. Kalpna Gahalaut & Rajesh Rekapalli, 2022. "On the enhanced post-impoundment seismicity in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1697-1712, September.
    18. Elio Roca-Flores & Gerardo G. Naumis, 2021. "Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2455-2465, September.
    19. Shuo Zheng & Kai Qin & Lixin Wu & Yanfei An & Qifeng Yin & Chunkit Lai, 2020. "Hydrothermal anomalies of the Earth's surface and crustal seismicity related to Ms8.0 Wenchuan EQ," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2097-2114, December.
    20. M. Hamdache & J. A. Peláez & A. Kijko & A. Smit, 2017. "Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 273-293, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32755-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.