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Strength dependency of frequency–magnitude distribution in earthquakes and implications for stress state criticality

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  • Satoshi Matsumoto

    (Kyushu University)

  • Yoshihisa Iio

    (Kyoto University)

  • Shinichi Sakai

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Aitaro Kato

    (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Earthquake size distribution is characterized by the “b-value” of the power law decay, which exhibits spatiotemporal variations. These variations are sometimes evident before a large earthquake. Understanding spatiotemporal variations is key to developing a model for large-earthquake generation. Previous studies have shown that changes in the b-value are caused by the tectonic stress regime. Furthermore, lab experiments have demonstrated the b-value dependency of acoustic emissions on the criticality of the failure condition. However, the factors controlling the b-values during natural seismic activity are unclear. In this study, changes in the b-value in small earthquake sequences are investigated, focusing on failure criticality. Based on our high-precision focal mechanism dataset, we conclude that the b-value decreases as it nears a critical failure condition, providing a physical explanation for the reduction in b-value before a major earthquake. Our findings elucidate fault failure models, facilitating improvement in earthquake alerts and disaster mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Satoshi Matsumoto & Yoshihisa Iio & Shinichi Sakai & Aitaro Kato, 2024. "Strength dependency of frequency–magnitude distribution in earthquakes and implications for stress state criticality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-49422-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49422-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Gulia & Stefan Wiemer, 2019. "Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks," Nature, Nature, vol. 574(7777), pages 193-199, October.
    2. Danijel Schorlemmer & Stefan Wiemer & Max Wyss, 2005. "Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7058), pages 539-542, September.
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