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21st-century stagnation in unvegetated sand-sea activity

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Gunn

    (Monash University
    University of Pennsylvania)

  • Amy East

    (United States Geological Survey)

  • Douglas J. Jerolmack

    (University of Pennsylvania
    University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Sand seas are vast expanses of Earth’s surface containing large areas of aeolian dunes—topographic patterns manifest from above-threshold winds and a supply of loose sand. Predictions of the role of future climate change for sand-sea activity are sparse and contradictory. Here we examine the impact of climate on all of Earth’s presently-unvegetated sand seas, using ensemble runs of an Earth System Model for historical and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We find that almost all of the sand seas decrease in activity relative to present-day and industrial-onset for all future SSP scenarios, largely due to more intermittent sand-transport events. An increase in event wait-times and decrease in sand transport is conducive to vegetation growth. We expect dune-forming winds will become more unimodal, and produce larger incipient wavelengths, due to weaker and more seasonal winds. Our results indicate that these qualitative changes in Earth’s deserts cannot be mitigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Gunn & Amy East & Douglas J. Jerolmack, 2022. "21st-century stagnation in unvegetated sand-sea activity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31123-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31123-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David S. G. Thomas & Melanie Knight & Giles F. S. Wiggs, 2005. "Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7046), pages 1218-1221, June.
    2. Y. Ashkenazy & H. Yizhaq & Haim Tsoar, 2012. "Sand dune mobility under climate change in the Kalahari and Australian deserts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 901-923, June.
    3. Andrew Gunn & Giampietro Casasanta & Luca Liberto & Federico Falcini & Nicholas Lancaster & Douglas J. Jerolmack, 2022. "What sets aeolian dune height?," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
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