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Pathway to a land-neutral expansion of Brazilian renewable fuel production

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Ramirez Camargo

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University)

  • Gabriel Castro

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
    Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Katharina Gruber

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • Jessica Jewell

    (Chalmers University of Technology
    University of Bergen
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Michael Klingler

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
    University of Innsbruck)

  • Olga Turkovska

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

  • Elisabeth Wetterlund

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Luleå University of Technology)

  • Johannes Schmidt

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

Abstract

Biofuels are currently the only available bulk renewable fuel. They have, however, limited expansion potential due to high land requirements and associated risks for biodiversity, food security, and land conflicts. We therefore propose to increase output from ethanol refineries in a land-neutral methanol pathway: surplus CO2-streams from fermentation are combined with H2 from renewably powered electrolysis to synthesize methanol. We illustrate this pathway with the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol industry using a spatio-temporal model. The fuel output of existing ethanol generation facilities can be increased by 43%–49% or ~100 TWh without using additional land. This amount is sufficient to cover projected growth in Brazilian biofuel demand in 2030. We identify a trade-off between renewable energy generation technologies: wind power requires the least amount of land whereas a mix of wind and solar costs the least. In the cheapest scenario, green methanol is competitive to fossil methanol at an average carbon price of 95€ tCO2−1.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Ramirez Camargo & Gabriel Castro & Katharina Gruber & Jessica Jewell & Michael Klingler & Olga Turkovska & Elisabeth Wetterlund & Johannes Schmidt, 2022. "Pathway to a land-neutral expansion of Brazilian renewable fuel production," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30850-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30850-2
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    2. Hoseinzadeh, Siamak & Garcia, Davide Astiaso, 2024. "Can AI predict the impact of its implementation in greenhouse farming?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

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