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1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways

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  • Lorenz T. Keyßer

    (ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney
    Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich)

  • Manfred Lenzen

    (ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney)

Abstract

1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenz T. Keyßer & Manfred Lenzen, 2021. "1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22884-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Ya-Yen Sun & Futu Faturay & Manfred Lenzen & Stefan Gössling & James Higham, 2024. "Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    5. Heyen, Nils B. & Zenker, Andrea & Aichinger, Heike & Bratan, Tanja & Kaufmann, Tanja & Schnabl, Esther, 2024. "Innovation without growth? Exploring the (in)dependency of innovation on economic growth," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 83, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    6. Farah Mneimneh & Hasan Ghazzawi & Seeram Ramakrishna, 2023. "Review Study of Energy Efficiency Measures in Favor of Reducing Carbon Footprint of Electricity and Power, Buildings, and Transportation," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 447-474, March.
    7. Vogel, Jefim & Guerin, Gauthier & O'Neill, Daniel W. & Steinberger, Julia K., 2024. "Safeguarding livelihoods against reductions in economic output," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Ivanova, Diana & Büchs, Milena, 2022. "Implications of shrinking household sizes for meeting the 1.5 °C climate targets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Andrew L. Fanning & Jason Hickel, 2023. "Compensation for atmospheric appropriation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 1077-1086, September.
    10. Joel Millward-Hopkins, 2022. "Inequality can double the energy required to secure universal decent living," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Mumbunan, Sonny & Maitri, Ni Made Rahayu, 2022. "A Review of Basic Income for Nature and Climate," OSF Preprints bre43, Center for Open Science.
    12. Elkadeem, Mohamed R. & Younes, Ali & Mazzeo, Domenico & Jurasz, Jakub & Elia Campana, Pietro & Sharshir, Swellam W. & Alaam, Mohamed A., 2022. "Geospatial-assisted multi-criterion analysis of solar and wind power geographical-technical-economic potential assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    13. Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe & DeStephano, Paelina & Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Duić, Neven, 2024. "Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    14. Fanning, Andrew L. & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "Compensation for atmospheric appropriation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119717, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Steven R. McGreevy & Christoph D. D. Rupprecht & Daniel Niles & Arnim Wiek & Michael Carolan & Giorgos Kallis & Kanang Kantamaturapoj & Astrid Mangnus & Petr Jehlička & Oliver Taherzadeh & Marlyne Sah, 2022. "Sustainable agrifood systems for a post-growth world," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1011-1017, December.
    16. Ahmann, Lara & Banning, Maximilian & Lutz, Christian, 2022. "Modeling rebound effects and counteracting policies for German industries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    17. Jason Hickel & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2022. "Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.

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