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Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolò Gozzi

    (University of Greenwich)

  • Michele Tizzoni

    (ISI Foundation)

  • Matteo Chinazzi

    (Northeastern University)

  • Leo Ferres

    (Universidad del Desarrollo
    Telefónica R&D)

  • Alessandro Vespignani

    (ISI Foundation
    Northeastern University)

  • Nicola Perra

    (University of Greenwich
    Northeastern University)

Abstract

We study the spatio-temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Santiago de Chile using anonymized mobile phone data from 1.4 million users, 22% of the whole population in the area, characterizing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the epidemic dynamics. We integrate these data into a mechanistic epidemic model calibrated on surveillance data. As of August 1, 2020, we estimate a detection rate of 102 cases per 1000 infections (90% CI: [95–112 per 1000]). We show that the introduction of a full lockdown on May 15, 2020, while causing a modest additional decrease in mobility and contacts with respect to previous NPIs, was decisive in bringing the epidemic under control, highlighting the importance of a timely governmental response to COVID-19 outbreaks. We find that the impact of NPIs on individuals’ mobility correlates with the Human Development Index of comunas in the city. Indeed, more developed and wealthier areas became more isolated after government interventions and experienced a significantly lower burden of the pandemic. The heterogeneity of COVID-19 impact raises important issues in the implementation of NPIs and highlights the challenges that communities affected by systemic health and social inequalities face adapting their behaviors during an epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolò Gozzi & Michele Tizzoni & Matteo Chinazzi & Leo Ferres & Alessandro Vespignani & Nicola Perra, 2021. "Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22601-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22601-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wenjia & Wu, Yulin & Deng, Guobang, 2024. "Social and spatial disparities in individuals’ mobility response time to COVID-19: A big data analysis incorporating changepoint detection and accelerated failure time models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Clodomir Santana & Federico Botta & Hugo Barbosa & Filippo Privitera & Ronaldo Menezes & Riccardo Di Clemente, 2023. "COVID-19 is linked to changes in the time–space dimension of human mobility," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 1729-1739, October.
    3. Liang, Zhenglin & Jiang, Chen & Sun, Muxia & Xue, Zongqi & Li, Yan-Fu, 2023. "Resilience analysis for confronting the spreading risk of contagious diseases," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    4. Camila Vantini Capasso Palamim & Matheus Negri Boschiero & Felipe Eduardo Valencise & Fernando Augusto Lima Marson, 2022. "Human Development Index Is Associated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Brazil: An Ecological Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Lorenzo Amir Nemati Fard & Michele Starnini & Michele Tizzoni, 2023. "Modeling adaptive forward-looking behavior in epidemics on networks," Papers 2301.04947, arXiv.org.
    6. Lin Chen & Fengli Xu & Zhenyu Han & Kun Tang & Pan Hui & James Evans & Yong Li, 2022. "Strategic COVID-19 vaccine distribution can simultaneously elevate social utility and equity," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1503-1514, November.
    7. Haider, Khan & Szymanski-Burgos, Adam, 2021. "COVID-19 and Strategic Sectors in Brazil: A Socially-Embedded Intersectional Capabilities Approach," MPRA Paper 109022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michele Tizzoni & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Laetitia Gauvin & Márton Karsai & Nicola Perra & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Monetary Fiscal Contributions to Households and Pension Fund Withdrawals during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Approximation of Their Impact on Construction Labor Supply in Chile," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-10, November.
    10. Kuzmanic, Danilo & Valenzuela, Juan Pablo & Claro, Susana & Canales, Andrea & Cerda, Daniela & Undurraga, Eduardo A., 2023. "Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. F. Vendrell-Herrero & M. Opazo-Basáez & Josip Marić, 2023. "Open and Social: Portraying the Resilient, Social and Competitive, Upcoming Enterprise," Post-Print hal-04434045, HAL.
    12. Benjamín Villena-Roldán, 2024. "Unpacking the Persistence of Informality," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 203-231, June.
    13. Adriana Manna & Júlia Koltai & Márton Karsai, 2024. "Importance of social inequalities to contact patterns, vaccine uptake, and epidemic dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Pan Zhang & Zhouling Bai, 2024. "Leaving messages as coproduction: impact of government COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on citizens’ online participation in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Bo Huang & Zhihui Huang & Chen Chen & Jian Lin & Tony Tam & Yingyi Hong & Sen Pei, 2022. "Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Nicolò Gozzi & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & Ira M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani, 2023. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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