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Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Author

Listed:
  • Edward A. Byers

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Gemma Coxon

    (University of Bristol
    University of Bristol)

  • Jim Freer

    (University of Bristol
    University of Bristol)

  • Jim W. Hall

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward A. Byers & Gemma Coxon & Jim Freer & Jim W. Hall, 2020. "Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-16012-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Tanaka Mandy Mbavarira & Christine Grimm, 2021. "A Systemic View on Circular Economy in the Water Industry: Learnings from a Belgian and Dutch Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-62, March.
    3. Turner, Sean W.D. & Nelson, Kristian & Voisin, Nathalie & Tidwell, Vincent & Miara, Ariel & Dyreson, Ana & Cohen, Stuart & Mantena, Dan & Jin, Julie & Warnken, Pete & Kao, Shih-Chieh, 2021. "A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    5. Wang, Huan & Liao, Shengli & Liu, Benxi & Zhao, Hongye & Ma, Xiangyu & Zhou, Binbin, 2024. "Long-term complementary scheduling model of hydro-wind-solar under extreme drought weather conditions using an improved time-varying hedging rule," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Hyungjin Shin & Gyumin Lee & Jaenam Lee & Sehoon Kim & Inhong Song, 2023. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability with Focus on Upland Fields and Identification of Primary Management Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Xia Li & Kevin P. Gallagher, 2022. "Assessing the climate change exposure of foreign direct investment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Zhang, Xin & Chen, Fanglin & Chen, Zhongfei & Zhang, Jie, 2024. "Temperature exposure and health inequality," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Doan, Bao & Vo, Duc Hong & Pham, Huy, 2023. "The net economic benefits of power plants: International evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Tomasz Walczykiewicz & Mateusz Żelazny, 2022. "Hydrological and Environmental Conditions and Implications of the Operation of a Thermal Power Plant with an Open Cooling System—An Example from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Ye, Liping, 2022. "The effect of climate news risk on uncertainties," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    12. Dongsheng Zheng & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Yue Qin & Yang Liu & Ruochong Xu & Jin Yang & Xizhe Yan & Guannan Geng & Huizheng Che & Qiang Zhang, 2024. "Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Dong, Xiyong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Effect of weather and environmental attentions on financial system risks: Evidence from Chinese high- and low-carbon assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Farman Ali & Bing-Zhao Li & Zulfiqar Ali, 2022. "A New Weighting Scheme for Diminishing the Effect of Extreme Values in Regional Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4099-4114, September.
    15. Chen, Qi & Kuang, Zhonghong & Liu, Xiaohua & Zhang, Tao, 2024. "Application-oriented assessment of grid-connected PV-battery system with deep reinforcement learning in buildings considering electricity price dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    16. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Climate risk and carbon emissions: Examining their impact on key energy markets through asymmetric spillovers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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