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Permafrost is warming at a global scale

Author

Listed:
  • Boris K. Biskaborn

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Sharon L. Smith

    (Natural Resources Canada)

  • Jeannette Noetzli

    (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF)

  • Heidrun Matthes

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Gonçalo Vieira

    (CEG/IGOT, Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Dmitry A. Streletskiy

    (George Washington University)

  • Philippe Schoeneich

    (Institut de Géographie Alpine)

  • Vladimir E. Romanovsky

    (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Antoni G. Lewkowicz

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Andrey Abramov

    (Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems of Soil Science, RAS)

  • Michel Allard

    (Université Laval, Centre d’études nordiques)

  • Julia Boike

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Humboldt-Universität, Geography Department)

  • William L. Cable

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Hanne H. Christiansen

    (The University Center in Svalbard)

  • Reynald Delaloye

    (University of Fribourg)

  • Bernhard Diekmann

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam)

  • Dmitry Drozdov

    (Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS)

  • Bernd Etzelmüller

    (University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences)

  • Guido Grosse

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam)

  • Mauro Guglielmin

    (Insubria University, Department of Theoretical and Applied Sciences)

  • Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen

    (Technical University of Denmark, Department of Civil Engineering)

  • Ketil Isaksen

    (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

  • Mamoru Ishikawa

    (Hokkaido University)

  • Margareta Johansson

    (Lund University)

  • Halldor Johannsson

    (Arctic Portal)

  • Anseok Joo

    (Arctic Portal)

  • Dmitry Kaverin

    (Komi Science Centre, RAS)

  • Alexander Kholodov

    (University of Alaska Fairbanks
    Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems of Soil Science, RAS)

  • Pavel Konstantinov

    (Melnikov Permafrost Institute, RAS)

  • Tim Kröger

    (Free University Berlin, Geography Department)

  • Christophe Lambiel

    (University of Lausanne)

  • Jean-Pierre Lanckman

    (Arctic Portal)

  • Dongliang Luo

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resource, CAS)

  • Galina Malkova

    (Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS)

  • Ian Meiklejohn

    (Rhodes University)

  • Natalia Moskalenko

    (Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS)

  • Marc Oliva

    (University of Barcelona)

  • Marcia Phillips

    (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF)

  • Miguel Ramos

    (Universidad de Alcalá)

  • A. Britta K. Sannel

    (Stockholm University)

  • Dmitrii Sergeev

    (Institute of Environmental Geoscience, RAS)

  • Cathy Seybold

    (National Soil Survey Center)

  • Pavel Skryabin

    (Melnikov Permafrost Institute, RAS)

  • Alexander Vasiliev

    (Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS
    Tyumen State University)

  • Qingbai Wu

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resource, CAS)

  • Kenji Yoshikawa

    (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Mikhail Zheleznyak

    (Melnikov Permafrost Institute, RAS)

  • Hugues Lantuit

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam)

Abstract

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris K. Biskaborn & Sharon L. Smith & Jeannette Noetzli & Heidrun Matthes & Gonçalo Vieira & Dmitry A. Streletskiy & Philippe Schoeneich & Vladimir E. Romanovsky & Antoni G. Lewkowicz & Andrey Abramo, 2019. "Permafrost is warming at a global scale," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-08240-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Pedro Rodríguez-López & Chihua Wu & Tatiana A. Vishnivetskaya & Julian B. Murton & Wenqiang Tang & Chao Ma, 2022. "Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Chen, Lin & Lai, Yuanming & Fortier, Daniel & Harris, Stuart A., 2022. "Impacts of snow cover on the pattern and velocity of air flow in air convection embankments of sub-Arctic regions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 1033-1046.
    3. Jannik Martens & Birgit Wild & Igor Semiletov & Oleg V. Dudarev & Örjan Gustafsson, 2022. "Circum-Arctic release of terrestrial carbon varies between regions and sources," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jannik Martens & Carsten W. Mueller & Prachi Joshi & Christoph Rosinger & Markus Maisch & Andreas Kappler & Michael Bonkowski & Georg Schwamborn & Lutz Schirrmeister & Janet Rethemeyer, 2023. "Stabilization of mineral-associated organic carbon in Pleistocene permafrost," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Rúna Í. Magnússon & Alexandra Hamm & Sergey V. Karsanaev & Juul Limpens & David Kleijn & Andrew Frampton & Trofim C. Maximov & Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, 2022. "Extremely wet summer events enhance permafrost thaw for multiple years in Siberian tundra," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Rashit M. Hantemirov & Christophe Corona & Sébastien Guillet & Stepan G. Shiyatov & Markus Stoffel & Timothy J. Osborn & Thomas M. Melvin & Ludmila A. Gorlanova & Vladimir V. Kukarskih & Alexander Y. , 2022. "Current Siberian heating is unprecedented during the past seven millennia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Jens Strauss & Christina Biasi & Tina Sanders & Benjamin W. Abbott & Thomas Schneider Deimling & Carolina Voigt & Matthias Winkel & Maija E. Marushchak & Dan Kou & Matthias Fuchs & Marcus A. Horn & Lo, 2022. "A globally relevant stock of soil nitrogen in the Yedoma permafrost domain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Shijin Wang, 2024. "Opportunities and threats of cryosphere change to the achievement of UN 2030 SDGs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Daniel J. Vecellio & Oliver W. Frauenfeld, 2022. "Surface and sub-surface drivers of autumn temperature increase over Eurasian permafrost," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Feng Cheng & Carmala Garzione & Xiangzhong Li & Ulrich Salzmann & Florian Schwarz & Alan M. Haywood & Julia Tindall & Junsheng Nie & Lin Li & Lin Wang & Benjamin W. Abbott & Ben Elliott & Weiguo Liu &, 2022. "Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Vladimir P. Melnikov & Victor I. Osipov & Anatoly V. Brouchkov & Arina A. Falaleeva & Svetlana V. Badina & Mikhail N. Zheleznyak & Marat R. Sadurtdinov & Nikolay A. Ostrakov & Dmitry S. Drozdov & Alex, 2022. "Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 231-251, May.
    12. Guanfu Wang & Jiajun Bi & Youkai Fan & Long Zhu & Feng Zhang & Decheng Feng, 2022. "Settlement Characteristic of Warm Permafrost Embankment with Two-Phase Closed Thermosyphons in Daxing’anling Mountains Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-20, September.
    13. Georgii A. Alexandrov & Veronika A. Ginzburg & Gregory E. Insarov & Anna A. Romanovskaya, 2021. "CMIP6 model projections leave no room for permafrost to persist in Western Siberia under the SSP5-8.5 scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Stepan Prokopievich Varlamov & Yuri Borisovich Skachkov & Pavel Nikolaevich Skryabin, 2021. "Long-Term Variability in Ground Thermal State in Central Yakutia’s Tuymaada Valley," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    15. Sudakow, Ivan & Savenkova, Elena & Kondrashov, Dmitri & Vakulenko, Sergey A. & Sashina, Elena, 2023. "Diverse soil microbial communities may mitigate climate system bifurcation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    16. M. E. Marushchak & J. Kerttula & K. Diáková & A. Faguet & J. Gil & G. Grosse & C. Knoblauch & N. Lashchinskiy & P. J. Martikainen & A. Morgenstern & M. Nykamb & J. G. Ronkainen & H. M. P. Siljanen & L, 2021. "Thawing Yedoma permafrost is a neglected nitrous oxide source," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Guibiao Yang & Zhihu Zheng & Benjamin W. Abbott & David Olefeldt & Christian Knoblauch & Yutong Song & Luyao Kang & Shuqi Qin & Yunfeng Peng & Yuanhe Yang, 2023. "Characteristics of methane emissions from alpine thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Andreas Kääb & Julie Røste, 2024. "Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. K. M. Walter Anthony & P. Anthony & N. Hasson & C. Edgar & O. Sivan & E. Eliani-Russak & O. Bergman & B. J. Minsley & S. R. James & N. J. Pastick & A. Kholodov & S. Zimov & E. Euskirchen & M. S. Bret-, 2024. "Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.

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