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A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenzhong Zeng

    (Southern University of Science and Technology
    Princeton University)

  • Alan D. Ziegler

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Timothy Searchinger

    (Princeton University)

  • Long Yang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Anping Chen

    (Colorado State University)

  • Kunlu Ju

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University)

  • Laurent Z. X. Li

    (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UPSACLAY)

  • Deliang Chen

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Junguo Liu

    (Southern University of Science and Technology)

  • Cesar Azorin-Molina

    (University of Gothenburg
    Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Montcada)

  • Adrian Chappell

    (Cardiff University)

  • David Medvigy

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Eric F. Wood

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Wind power, a rapidly growing alternative energy source, has been threatened by reductions in global average surface wind speed, which have been occurring over land since the 1980s, a phenomenon known as global terrestrial stilling. Here, we use wind data from in situ stations worldwide to show that the stilling reversed around 2010 and that global wind speeds over land have recovered. We illustrate that decadal-scale variations of near-surface wind are probably determined by internal decadal ocean–atmosphere oscillations, rather than by vegetation growth and/or urbanization as hypothesized previously. The strengthening has increased potential wind energy by 17 ± 2% for 2010 to 2017, boosting the US wind power capacity factor by ~2.5% and explains half the increase in the US wind capacity factor since 2010. In the longer term, the use of ocean–atmosphere oscillations to anticipate future wind speeds could allow optimization of turbines for expected speeds during their productive life spans.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenzhong Zeng & Alan D. Ziegler & Timothy Searchinger & Long Yang & Anping Chen & Kunlu Ju & Shilong Piao & Laurent Z. X. Li & Philippe Ciais & Deliang Chen & Junguo Liu & Cesar Azorin-Molina & Adria, 2019. "A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 979-985, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0622-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0622-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Jung & Dirk Schindler, 2023. "Reasons for the Recent Onshore Wind Capacity Factor Increase," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Andrew Zammit‐Mangion, 2020. "Discussion on A high‐resolution bilevel skew‐t stochastic generator for assessing Saudi Arabia's wind energy resources," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), November.
    3. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Correct and remap solar radiation and photovoltaic power in China based on machine learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    4. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Kleidon, Axel, 2023. "Potential impact of global stilling on wind energy production in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    6. Bin Yu & Xuebin Zhang & Guilong Li & Wei Yu, 2022. "Interhemispheric asymmetry of climate change projections of boreal winter surface winds in CanESM5 large ensemble simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Tasnim Zaman & Timothy W. Juliano & Patrick Hawbecker & Marina Astitha, 2024. "On Predicting Offshore Hub Height Wind Speed and Wind Power Density in the Northeast US Coast Using High-Resolution WRF Model Configurations during Anticyclones Coinciding with Wind Drought," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Ziqian Zhong & Bin He & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Wenjie Dong & Cunde Xiao & Shang-ping Xie & Xiangzhou Song & Lanlan Guo & Ruiqiang Ding & Lixia Zhang & Ling Huang & Wenping Yuan &, 2023. "Reversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Amar Azhar & Huzaifa Hashim, 2023. "A Review of Wind Clustering Methods Based on the Wind Speed and Trend in Malaysia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-24, April.
    10. Miao, Haozeyu & Xu, Haiming & Huang, Gang & Yang, Kai, 2023. "Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 809-821.
    11. Chenglai Wu & Zhaohui Lin & Yaping Shao & Xiaohong Liu & Ying Li, 2022. "Drivers of recent decline in dust activity over East Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Dong Xia & Huiwen Nie & Lei Sun & Jing Wang & Kim-Chiu Chow & Kwing-Lam Chan & Donghai Wang, 2022. "Urbanization Effects on Surface Wind in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area Using a Fan-Sector Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Oleksandr DIACHUK & Andrii SEMENIUK, 2021. "Methods And Models Of Estimating Energy Transition On The Example Of Zhytomyr United Territorial Community," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 74-101.
    14. Yang, Xinrong & Jiang, Xin & Liang, Shijing & Qin, Yingzuo & Ye, Fan & Ye, Bin & Xu, Jiayu & He, Xinyue & Wu, Jie & Dong, Tianyun & Cai, Xitian & Xu, Rongrong & Zeng, Zhenzhong, 2024. "Spatiotemporal variation of power law exponent on the use of wind energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    15. Li, Chen & Mogollón, José M. & Tukker, Arnold & Dong, Jianning & von Terzi, Dominic & Zhang, Chunbo & Steubing, Bernhard, 2022. "Future material requirements for global sustainable offshore wind energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    16. Drücke, Jaqueline & Borsche, Michael & James, Paul & Kaspar, Frank & Pfeifroth, Uwe & Ahrens, Bodo & Trentmann, Jörg, 2021. "Climatological analysis of solar and wind energy in Germany using the Grosswetterlagen classification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1254-1266.
    17. Ramezani, Mahyar & Choe, Do-Eun & Heydarpour, Khashayar & Koo, Bonjun, 2023. "Uncertainty models for the structural design of floating offshore wind turbines: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

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