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Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity

Author

Listed:
  • Kunxiaojia Yuan

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Fa Li

    (University of Wisconsin Madison)

  • Gavin McNicol

    (University of Illinois Chicago)

  • Min Chen

    (University of Wisconsin Madison)

  • Alison Hoyt

    (Stanford University)

  • Sara Knox

    (The University of British Columbia
    McGill University)

  • William J. Riley

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Robert Jackson

    (Stanford University)

  • Qing Zhu

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Abstract

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions over the Boreal–Arctic region are vulnerable to climate change and linked to climate feedbacks, yet understanding of their long-term dynamics remains uncertain. Here, we upscaled and analysed two decades (2002–2021) of Boreal–Arctic wetland CH4 emissions, representing an unprecedented compilation of eddy covariance and chamber observations. We found a robust increasing trend of CH4 emissions (+8.9%) with strong inter-annual variability. The majority of emission increases occurred in early summer (June and July) and were mainly driven by warming (52.3%) and ecosystem productivity (40.7%). Moreover, a 2 °C temperature anomaly in 2016 led to the highest recorded annual CH4 emissions (22.3 Tg CH4 yr−1) over this region, driven primarily by high emissions over Western Siberian lowlands. However, current-generation models from the Global Carbon Project failed to capture the emission magnitude and trend, and may bias the estimates in future wetland CH4 emission driven by amplified Boreal–Arctic warming and greening.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunxiaojia Yuan & Fa Li & Gavin McNicol & Min Chen & Alison Hoyt & Sara Knox & William J. Riley & Robert Jackson & Qing Zhu, 2024. "Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(3), pages 282-288, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-024-01933-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01933-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jakob Runge & Vladimir Petoukhov & Jonathan F. Donges & Jaroslav Hlinka & Nikola Jajcay & Martin Vejmelka & David Hartman & Norbert Marwan & Milan Paluš & Jürgen Kurths, 2015. "Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Jakob Runge & Sebastian Bathiany & Erik Bollt & Gustau Camps-Valls & Dim Coumou & Ethan Deyle & Clark Glymour & Marlene Kretschmer & Miguel D. Mahecha & Jordi Muñoz-Marí & Egbert H. Nes & Jonas Peters, 2019. "Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
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