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Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

Author

Listed:
  • In-Hong Park

    (Hanyang University, ERICA)

  • Sang-Wook Yeh

    (Hanyang University, ERICA)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    Ocean University of China)

  • Guojian Wang

    (Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    Ocean University of China)

  • Seung-Ki Min

    (Pohang University of Science and Technology
    Yonsei University)

  • Sang-Ki Lee

    (NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)

Abstract

Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • In-Hong Park & Sang-Wook Yeh & Wenju Cai & Guojian Wang & Seung-Ki Min & Sang-Ki Lee, 2023. "Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(8), pages 816-822, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01728-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01728-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben Bronselaer & Laure Zanna, 2020. "Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 227-233, August.
    2. Peter M. Cox & David Pearson & Ben B. Booth & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Catherine M. Luke, 2013. "Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 494(7437), pages 341-344, February.
    3. Ben Bronselaer & Laure Zanna, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 29-29, October.
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