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Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Bronselaer

    (University of Oxford
    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University of Arizona
    Princeton University)

  • Laure Zanna

    (University of Oxford
    New York University)

Abstract

Anthropogenic global surface warming is proportional to cumulative carbon emissions1–3; this relationship is partly determined by the uptake and storage of heat and carbon by the ocean4. The rates and patterns of ocean heat and carbon storage are influenced by ocean transport, such as mixing and large-scale circulation5–10. However, existing climate models do not accurately capture the observed patterns of ocean warming, with a large spread in their projections of ocean circulation and ocean heat uptake8,11. Additionally, assessing the influence of ocean circulation changes (specifically, the redistribution of heat by resolved advection) on patterns of observed and simulated ocean warming remains a challenge. Here we establish a linear relationship between the heat and carbon uptake of the ocean in response to anthropogenic emissions. This relationship is determined mainly by intrinsic parameters of the Earth system—namely, the ocean carbon buffer capacity, the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide and the carbon inventory of the ocean. We use this relationship to reveal the effect of changes in ocean circulation from carbon dioxide forcing on patterns of ocean warming in both observations and global Earth system models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We show that historical patterns of ocean warming are shaped by ocean heat redistribution, which CMIP5 models simulate poorly. However, we find that projected patterns of heat storage are primarily dictated by the pre-industrial ocean circulation (and small changes in unresolved ocean processes)—that is, by the patterns of added heat owing to ocean uptake of excess atmospheric heat rather than ocean warming by circulation changes. Climate models show more skill in simulating ocean heat storage by the pre-industrial circulation compared to heat redistribution, indicating that warming patterns of the ocean may become more predictable as the climate warms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Bronselaer & Laure Zanna, 2020. "Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 227-233, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:584:y:2020:i:7820:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2573-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2573-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhichao Li & Bojia Liu, 2023. "Understanding Carbon Emissions Reduction in China: Perspectives of Political Mobility," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Fenzhen Su & Rong Fan & Fengqin Yan & Michael Meadows & Vincent Lyne & Po Hu & Xiangzhou Song & Tianyu Zhang & Zenghong Liu & Chenghu Zhou & Tao Pei & Xiaomei Yang & Yunyan Du & Zexun Wei & Fan Wang &, 2023. "Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Shabir, Maria & Pazienza, Pasquale & De Lucia, Caterina, 2023. "Energy innovation and ecological footprint: Evidence from OECD countries during 1990–2018," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Gang Xu & Tianyi Zeng & Hong Jin & Cong Xu & Ziqi Zhang, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Variations and Influencing Factors of Country-Level Carbon Emissions for Northeast China Based on VIIRS Nighttime Lighting Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Nathan P. Gillett, 2023. "Warming proportional to cumulative carbon emissions not explained by heat and carbon sharing mixing processes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. In-Hong Park & Sang-Wook Yeh & Wenju Cai & Guojian Wang & Seung-Ki Min & Sang-Ki Lee, 2023. "Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(8), pages 816-822, August.
    7. Zhenjun Gao & Shujie Li & Xiufeng Cao & Yuefen Li, 2022. "Carbon Emission Intensity Characteristics and Spatial Spillover Effects in Counties in Northeast China: Based on a Spatial Econometric Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.

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