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Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Basheer

    (University of Manchester)

  • Victor Nechifor

    (University College London
    European Commission)

  • Alvaro Calzadilla

    (University College London)

  • Solomon Gebrechorkos

    (University of Southampton)

  • David Pritchard

    (Newcastle University)

  • Nathan Forsythe

    (Newcastle University)

  • Jose M. Gonzalez

    (University of Manchester)

  • Justin Sheffield

    (University of Southampton)

  • Hayley J. Fowler

    (Newcastle University
    Newcastle University)

  • Julien J. Harou

    (University of Manchester
    University College London)

Abstract

The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Basheer & Victor Nechifor & Alvaro Calzadilla & Solomon Gebrechorkos & David Pritchard & Nathan Forsythe & Jose M. Gonzalez & Justin Sheffield & Hayley J. Fowler & Julien J. Harou, 2023. "Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 48-57, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01556-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01556-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammed Basheer & Victor Nechifor & Alvaro Calzadilla & Claudia Ringler & David Hulme & Julien J. Harou, 2022. "Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Siddig, Khalid & Elagra, Samir & Grethe, Harald & Mubarak, Amel, 2016. "A Post-Separation Social Accounting Matrix for the Sudan," Working Paper Series 244286, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Maksym Chepeliev, 2020. "GTAP-Power Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(2), pages 110-137, December.
    4. Marc Jeuland & Xun Wu & Dale Whittington, 2017. "Infrastructure development and the economics of cooperation in the Eastern Nile," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 121-141, February.
    5. Mohammed Basheer & Rayyan Sulieman & Lars Ribbe, 2021. "Exploring management approaches for water and energy in the data-scarce Tekeze-Atbara Basin under hydrologic uncertainty," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 182-207, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dale Whittington & Richard T. Carson & Thomas Sterner, 2023. "Policy Note: Benefit Cost Analysis of Water Investments in the Anthropocene," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-23, July.

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