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The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis

Author

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  • Neil Grant

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Adam Hawkes

    (Imperial College London)

  • Tamaryn Napp

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Ajay Gambhir

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

Abstract

Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit mitigative action taken. The use of such baselines is under increasing scrutiny, raising a wider question around the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. In this Perspective, we assess three critical issues relevant to the use of reference scenarios, demonstrating how different policy contexts merit the use of different scenarios. We provide recommendations to the modelling community on best practice in the creation, use and communication of reference scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Grant & Adam Hawkes & Tamaryn Napp & Ajay Gambhir, 2020. "The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(7), pages 605-610, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0826-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0826-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Thimet, P.J. & Mavromatidis, G., 2023. "What-where-when: Investigating the role of storage for the German electricity system transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    2. Alexandre C. Köberle & Toon Vandyck & Celine Guivarch & Nick Macaluso & Valentina Bosetti & Ajay Gambhir & Massimo Tavoni & Joeri Rogelj, 2021. "The cost of mitigation revisited," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1035-1045, December.
    3. Rafaty, R. & Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F., 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Jiandong Chen & Chong Xu & Yinyin Wu & Zihao Li & Malin Song, 2022. "Drivers and trajectories of China’s renewable energy consumption," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 441-459, June.
    5. Odenweller, Adrian, 2022. "Climate mitigation under S-shaped energy technology diffusion: Leveraging synergies of optimisation and simulation models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Rhodes, Ekaterina & Hoyle, Aaron & McPherson, Madeleine & Craig, Kira, 2022. "Understanding climate policy projections: A scoping review of energy-economy models in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Jana Gheuens & Sebastian Oberthür, 2021. "EU Climate and Energy Policy: How Myopic Is It?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(3), pages 337-347.
    8. Stern, Nicholas & Lankes, Hans Peter & Macquarie, Rob & Soubeyran, Éléonore, 2024. "The relationship between climate action and poverty reduction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Marinakis, Vangelis & Nikas, Alexandros & Chira, Katerina & Flamos, Alexandros & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Monetising behavioural change as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector: A case study in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Jennifer Morris & David Hone & Martin Haigh & Andrei Sokolov & Sergey Paltsev, 2023. "Future energy: in search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(1), pages 31-61, January.
    11. Motlaghzadeh, Kasra & Schweizer, Vanessa & Craik, Neil & Moreno-Cruz, Juan, 2023. "Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

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