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Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

Author

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  • Sebastian Sippel

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
    Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich
    Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research)

  • Nicolai Meinshausen

    (Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zurich)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • Enikő Székely

    (Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL)

  • Reto Knutti

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

Abstract

For generations, climate scientists have educated the public that ‘weather is not climate’, and climate change has been framed as the change in the distribution of weather that slowly emerges from large variability over decades1–7. However, weather when considered globally is now in uncharted territory. Here we show that on the basis of a single day of globally observed temperature and moisture, we detect the fingerprint of externally driven climate change, and conclude that Earth as a whole is warming. Our detection approach invokes statistical learning and climate model simulations to encapsulate the relationship between spatial patterns of daily temperature and humidity, and key climate change metrics such as annual global mean temperature or Earth’s energy imbalance. Observations are projected onto this relationship to detect climate change. The fingerprint of climate change is detected from any single day in the observed global record since early 2012, and since 1999 on the basis of a year of data. Detection is robust even when ignoring the long-term global warming trend. This complements traditional climate change detection, but also opens broader perspectives for the communication of regional weather events, modifying the climate change narrative: while changes in weather locally are emerging over decades, global climate change is now detected instantaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Sippel & Nicolai Meinshausen & Erich M. Fischer & Enikő Székely & Reto Knutti, 2020. "Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 35-41, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0666-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashish Gulagi & Manish Ram & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Sandeep Sarin & Theophilus Nii Odai Mensah & Christian Breyer, 2022. "The role of renewables for rapid transitioning of the power sector across states in India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Dina M. Abdelzaher & Aleksey Martynov, 2023. "The impact of countries' culture norms and innovations on their adaptive capacity to climate change," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1433-1443, June.
    3. Kira J. Cooper & Robert B. Gibson, 2022. "A Novel Framework for Inner-Outer Sustainability Assessment," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Beadle, Brian, 2023. "The design and application of an agricultural sustainability index using item response theory," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 278112, September.
    5. Makhloufi, Saida & Khennas, Smail & Bouchaib, Sami & Arab, Amar Hadj, 2022. "Multi-objective cuckoo search algorithm for optimized pathways for 75 % renewable electricity mix by 2050 in Algeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1410-1424.
    6. Ciara O’Flynn & Valentine Seymour & James Crawshaw & Thomas Parrott & Catriona Reeby & S. Ravi P. Silva, 2021. "The Road to Net Zero: A Case Study of Innovative Technologies and Policy Changes Used at a Medium-Sized University to Achieve C zero by 2030," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-23, September.
    7. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi & Alessia Cafferata, 2024. "How do you feel about going green? Modelling environmental sentiments in a growing open economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(4), pages 649-687, October.
    8. Charles A. Ogunbode & Rouven Doran & Gisela Böhm, 2020. "Individual and local flooding experiences are differentially associated with subjective attribution and climate change concern," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2243-2255, October.
    9. Abdul Ghani Olabi & Nabila Shehata & Hussein M. Maghrabie & Lobna A. Heikal & Mohammad Ali Abdelkareem & Shek Mohammod Atiqure Rahman & Sheikh Khaleduzzaman Shah & Enas Taha Sayed, 2022. "Progress in Solar Thermal Systems and Their Role in Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Theodore G. Shepherd, 2021. "Bringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-19, November.

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