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Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations

Author

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  • Benzell, Seth G.
  • Collis, Avinash

    (UT Austin)

  • Nicolaides, Christos

    (University of Cyprus)

Abstract

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, some types of stores and gathering places have been shut down while others remain open. The decision to shut down one type of location and leave another open constitutes a judgement about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using location data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and government statistics, we measure the relative transmission risk benefit and social cost of closing about thirty different location categories in the US. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and public spaces. Our main analysis ranks twenty-six categories by those which should face stricter regulation via dominance across eight dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that from February to March, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures imply should be closed first. We hope this analysis will help policymakers decide how to reopen their economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Benzell, Seth G. & Collis, Avinash & Nicolaides, Christos, 2020. "Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations," OSF Preprints d64vm_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:d64vm_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/d64vm_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker, 2020. "Which Retail Outlets Generate the Most Physical Interactions?," NBER Working Papers 27042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. M. Keith Chen & Ryne Rohla, 2017. "The Effect of Partisanship and Political Advertising on Close Family Ties," Papers 1711.10602, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
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