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Can Money Supply Predict Stock Prices?

Author

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  • Sara Alatiqi
  • Shokoofeh Fazel

Abstract

A positive causal relation from money supply to stock prices is frequently hypothesized by some financial media and financial analysts. The basis of this assertion is an assumed negative causal relation from money supply to interest rates, and a negative causal relation from interest rates to stock prices. In this paper, we argue against a stable causal relation from money supply to stock prices. An empirical analysis, based on cointegration and Granger Causality tests, supports our argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Alatiqi & Shokoofeh Fazel, . "Can Money Supply Predict Stock Prices?," Journal for Economic Educators, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and Economic Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:mts:jrnlee:200810
    as

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    File URL: http://frank.mtsu.edu/~jee/fall2008/5-MS708-MoneySupplyStockP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    2. Gupta, Manak C., 1974. "Money Supply and Stock Prices: A Probabilistic Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 57-68, January.
    3. Kraft, John & Kraft, Arthur, 1977. "Determinants of Common Stock Prices: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 417-425, May.
    4. Pesando, James E, 1974. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices: Further Observations on the Econometric Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 909-921, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Širůček, 2013. "Impact of money supply on stock bubbles," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2835-2842.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    4. Sirucek, Martin, 2011. "Impact of monetary policy on US stock market," MPRA Paper 40943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. DITIMI Amassoma & IFEOLUWA Bolarinwa, 2018. "A Time Series Analysis Of The Nexus Between Macroeconomic Fundamentals And Stock Prices In Nigeria," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 69-91, August.
    6. Mercan Hatipoglu, 2023. "What Determined Stock Returns in Turkey from 1990 to 2022: Evidence from Structural Break Regression," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 185-202, June.
    7. Chin-Hong Puah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2010. "Is money neutral in stock market? The case of Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1852-1861.
    8. Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani, 2011. "Monetary Shocks or Real Shocks, Which matters the most for Share Prices," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 2(6), pages 246-251.
    9. Hossain, Md. Sajib & Hossain, Md. Amzad & Amin, Shabnaz, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Monetary Policy Stance and Stock Price in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 39(1-2), pages 27-57, March-Jun.
    10. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
    11. Martin Širůček, 2012. "Effect of money supply on the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 399-408.
    12. Kishor K. Guru-Gharana & Matiur Rahman & Anisul M. Islam, 2021. "Japan s Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Toda-Yamamoto and Dolado-Lutkepohl Tests for Multivariate Granger Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 107-122.
    13. Pooja Joshi & Arun Kumar Giri, 2015. "Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, August.
    14. Miao Jia, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on the Dynamics among Major Asset Classes," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 51(1), pages 9-19, September.
    15. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2014. "Sensitivity Of Stock Prices To Money Supply Dynamics," MPRA Paper 77924, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    16. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2021. "Investigating the Effect of Broad Money Supply on Stock Market Index and Market Capitalization: Evidence from Liberalized India," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 10(2), pages 185-198, December.
    17. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu [Money supply and US stock market causality]," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.

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