New Methods of Evaluating the Forecasts Accuracy: A Case Study for USA Inflation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Bratu Mihaela, 2013. "An Evaluation Of Usa Unemployment Rate Forecasts In Terms Of Accuracy And Bias. Empirical Methods To Improve The Forecasts Accuracy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 170-180, February.
- Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011.
"Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective,"
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
- Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova, 2010. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Working Papers 2010/14, Czech National Bank.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003.
"The Band Pass Filter,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Papers (Old Series) 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CFFILTER: RATS procedure to perform band pass filter using Christiano-Fitzgerald method," Statistical Software Components RTS00034, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
- Bruno Deschamps & Paolo Bianchi, 2012. "An evaluation of Chinese macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 229-246, December.
- Razzak, W., 1997. "The Hodrick-Prescott technique: A smoother versus a filter: An application to New Zealand GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 163-168, December.
- Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "Filters or Holt Winters Technique to Improve the Forecasts for USA Inflation Rate?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(1), pages 126-136, February.
- Mihaela, Bratu, 2013. "Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of SPF Inflation Rate Forescasts of USA," Ekonomika, Journal for Economic Theory and Practice and Social Issues, Society of Economists Ekonomika, Nis, Serbia, vol. 59(1), March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "Filters or Holt Winters Technique to Improve the Forecasts for USA Inflation Rate?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(1), pages 126-136, February.
- Botshekan, Mahmoud & Lucas, André, 2017.
"Long-Term versus Short-Term Contingencies in Asset Allocation,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 2277-2303, October.
- Mahmoud Botshekan & Andre Lucas, 2012. "Long-Term versus Short-Term Contingencies in Asset Allocation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-053/2/DSF34, Tinbergen Institute.
- Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García‐Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan & Antonio Martín‐Arroyo, 2020. "Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
- Mihaela Bratu, 2012. "A Strategy to Improve the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Predictions Using Bias-Corrected-Accelerated (BCA) Bootstrap Forecast Intervals," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 1(2), pages 45-59.
- Constantin Mitru? & Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "The Indicators’ Inadequacy and the Predictions’ Accuracy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(4), pages 430-442, August.
- Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
- Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2019. "“Sakura” has not grown in a day: infrastructure investment and economic growth in Japan under different tax regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 541-567, August.
- Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015.
"Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union,"
Working Papers IES
2015/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2015.
- Hanus, Lubos & Vacha, Lukas, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization of the Visegrad Four and the European Union," FinMaP-Working Papers 42, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
- Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Veronese, Giovanni & Bassanetti, Antonio, 2001.
"EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
- Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "Independent Monetary Policy Versus a Common Currency: A Macroeconomic Analysis for the Czech Republic Through the Lens of an Applied DSGE Model," Working Papers 2018/19, Czech National Bank.
- Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
- Jaromir Benes & David Vavra, 2004. "Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle," Working Papers 2004/08, Czech National Bank.
- repec:got:cegedp:84 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015.
"Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
- Mr. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 2012/013, International Monetary Fund.
- Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Working Papers 1508, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 2015-04, FEDEA.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Woo-Young Kang & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022.
"The COVID-19 pandemic, policy responses and stock markets in the G20,"
International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 77-90.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic, policy responses and stock markets in the G20," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 77-90.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Woo-Young Kang & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2021. "The Covid-19 Pandemic, Policy Responses and Stock Markets in the G20," CESifo Working Paper Series 9299, CESifo.
- Azcona, Nestor, 2022.
"Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners,"
International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
- Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
- Kevin Lansing, 2009.
"Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 2006-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," 2006 Meeting Papers 758, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
- Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
- Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023.
"The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
- Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model," Working Papers 23-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecasts; Accuracy; Logistic regression; Multi-criteria ranking; Non-parametric tests;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:ber888:v:3:y:2013:i:1:p:21-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.