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Business Cycles in Turkey and European Union Countries: A Perspective to the Membership

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Berument
  • Zübeyir Kılınç
  • Eray M. Yücel

Abstract

This article assesses how the business cycles in Turkey coincide with the business cycles of member and candidate countries of the European Union. The evidence provided in the paper suggests that there is a negative linkage between Turkish and European business cycle dynamics when the Turkish crises are included in the data sets. This implies that the timing of the common economic policies of the European Union in order to decrease the volatility of output may actually increase the output volatility, rather than to decrease, for Turkey. On the other hand, when only the non-crises data of Turkey is employed, a pro-cyclical linkage is revealed between Turkish and the European economies. This suggests that policies enhancing the macroeconomic stability and preventing crises are crucial for healthier synchronization of the Turkish economy with its EU counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Berument & Zübeyir Kılınç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "Business Cycles in Turkey and European Union Countries: A Perspective to the Membership," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 2005-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:050101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case," MPRA Paper 21717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 279-300, June.
    4. P. Fulya Gebeşoğlu & Hasan Murat Ertuğrul, 2014. "GDP Volatility Spillovers from the US and EU to Turkey: A Dynamic Investigation," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 51-66, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Economic Integration; and European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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