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Indicador financiero eficaz, para la selección de proyectos de inversión incorporando el riesgo, y su validación empírica

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  • René Guigui Gámez

    (Universidad Panamericana)

  • Héctor Salas Harms

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract

El objetivo es proponer y validar empíricamente una metodología de evaluación de proyectos de inversión, denominada Valor Presente Neto Ajustado al Riesgo (VPNAR). En este proceso, se valuaron 58 empresas que cotizan en la BMV, en los sectores: Materiales, Industriales, Bienes de consumo no básicos y Telecomunicaciones, para determinar un indicador máximo de riesgo por sector. Por otra parte, se tomaron 15 proyectos de inversión de empresas de dichos sectores que fueron evaluados diez años antes bajo los métodos tradicionales y que fueron implementados, desarrollándose un modelo financiero que incorpora el riesgo, homologando la metodología del VaR a la medida VPN. Esta investigación mostró que esta metodología tiene un mejor poder predictivo que los métodos tradicionales; al aplicar el indicador VPNAR no se habrían aprobado la mayoría de los proyectos que fracasaron en la realidad, lo cual es la contribución de la presente investigación a las finanzas corporativas.

Suggested Citation

  • René Guigui Gámez & Héctor Salas Harms, 2018. "Indicador financiero eficaz, para la selección de proyectos de inversión incorporando el riesgo, y su validación empírica," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 4(1), pages 20-46, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:msn:rijrnl:v:4:y:2028:i:1:p:20-46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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