IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mhr/finarc/urnsici0015-2218(200703)631_83vosswp_2.0.tx_2-o.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility of Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit-Rule Changes in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Borgmann
  • Matthias Heidler

Abstract

We address the question of how the generosity of the German public pension systems' benefit rule has changed during the past three decades. In order to do so, we firstly outline the social security reforms of the past 50 years. Then, we illustrate political risk by measuring the volatility of social security wealth induced by the legislative benefit rule changes. Our results show that the standard deviation resulting in the scenarios and cohorts considered is well over 10%. Furthermore, it turns out that the gross social security wealth can be subject to losses between 30% and 60% over the life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2007. "Volatility of Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit-Rule Changes in Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 63(1), pages 83-106, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200703)63:1_83:vosswp_2.0.tx_2-o
    DOI: 10.1628/001522107X186737
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mohrsiebeck.com/en/article/volatility-of-social-security-wealth-political-risks-of-benefitrule-changes-in-germany-101628001522107x186737
    Download Restriction: Fulltext access is included for subscribers to the printed version.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1628/001522107X186737?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamond Peter & Orszag Peter R., 2002. "An Assessment of the Proposals of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-61, October.
    2. John McHale, 2001. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    4. Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return," FZG Discussion Papers 6, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    5. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    6. Arnds, Pascal & Bonin, Holger, 2002. "Frühverrentung in Deutschland: Ökonomische Anreize und institutionelle Strukturen," IZA Discussion Papers 666, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 08-50.
    8. Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return," Discussion Papers 138, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    9. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Rates of Return of the German Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    10. Eekhoff Johann, 1985. "Altersvorsorge bei sinkenden Bevölkerungszahlen," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1), pages 247-270, April.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wroński, Marcin, 2023. "The impact of social security wealth on the distribution of wealth in the European Union," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    2. Sierminska, Eva & Wroński, Marcin, 2022. "Inequality and Public Pension Entitlements," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1212, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Andrew A. Samwick, 2018. "The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 275-307, February.
    4. Wörz, Markus, 2011. "Old-age provisions in Germany: Changes in the retirement system since the 1980s," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Inequality and Social Integration SP I 2011-208, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo.
    2. Andrew Coleman, 2014. "To Save or Save Not: Intergenerational Neutrality and the Expansion of New Zealand Superannuation," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    4. Michael Kaganovich & Volker Meier, 2012. "Social Security Systems, Human Capital, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(4), pages 573-600, August.
    5. Hayo, Bernd & Ono, Hiroyuki, 2010. "Comparing public attitudes toward providing for the livelihood of the elderly in two aging societies: Germany and Japan," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 72-80, January.
    6. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    7. Guinnane, Timothy & Streb, Jochen, 2019. "Bismarck to no Effect: Fertility Decline and the Introduction of Social Insurance in Prussia," Working Papers 13, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2007. "How an Unfunded Pension System looks like Defined Benefits but works like Defined Contributions: The German Pension Reform," MEA discussion paper series 07126, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    9. Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2187-2212, December.
    10. Mikko Puhakka & Matti Viren, 2012. "Social Security, Saving and Fertility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 28-42, Spring.
    11. Pinotti Paolo, 2009. "Financial Development and Pay-As-You-Go Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Junya Hamaaki, 2013. "The Pension System and Household Consumption and Saving Behavior," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 687-716, September.
    13. Olovsson, Conny, 2010. "Quantifying the risk-sharing welfare gains of social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 364-375, April.
    14. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Mind the Gap: The Effectiveness of Incentives to boost Retirement Saving in Europe," MEA discussion paper series 04052, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    15. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," MEA discussion paper series 03034, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    16. Libor Dušek & Juraj Kopecsni, 2008. "Policy Risk in Action: Pension Reforms and Social Security Wealth in Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 329-357, Oktober.
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "The Crisis of Germany's Pension Insurance System and How It Can Be Resolved," NBER Working Papers 7304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus : Theorie und Evidenz," Papers 05-05, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    19. Robert Fenge & Beatrice Scheubel, 2017. "Pensions and fertility: back to the roots," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 93-139, January.
    20. Luciano Fanti, 2012. "PAYG pensions and fertility drop: some (pleasant) arithmetic," Discussion Papers 2012/146, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    social security wealth; political risk; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200703)63:1_83:vosswp_2.0.tx_2-o. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Wolpert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mohrsiebeck.com/fa .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.