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How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return

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  • Heidler, Matthias
  • Raffelhüschen, Bernd

Abstract

In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our resultsshow the volatility of the internal rate of return to be significantly higherunder the actual policy. We furthermore find that the sustainable internalrates of return are close to zero for the youngest male cohorts and posi-tive for females for optimistic growth scenarios. In more realistic scenariosthings turn worse.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "How risky is the German pension system? The volatility of the internal rates of return," Discussion Papers 138, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:alufin:138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Reinhard Koman & Erik Lüth & Bernd Raffelüschen, 2000. "Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 225-252, September.
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus Theorie und Evidenz," MEA discussion paper series 05069, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    5. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo.
    6. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    7. Axel Börsch‐Supan, 2005. "Risiken im Lebenszyklus: Theorie und Evidenz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(4), pages 449-469, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2007. "Volatility of Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit-Rule Changes in Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 63(1), pages 83-106, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk; internal rate of return; sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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