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The Crisis of Germany's Pension Insurance System and How It Can Be Resolved

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

The paper discusses the options for a reform of the German pension system using a model developed at CES for the German Council of economic advisors to the Federal Ministry of Economics and Research. It is argued that the German pay-as-you-go-system is efficient in a present value sense but will nevertheless need the support of a funded system to avoid a financial crisis. The paper investigates the possibility of introducing obligatory private savings at a variable rate where the time path of the savings rate is chosen so as to stabilize the sum of this rate and the pay-as-you-go contribution rate, given the time path of pensions as defined in the present system.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "The Crisis of Germany's Pension Insurance System and How It Can Be Resolved," NBER Working Papers 7304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "Privatizing Social Security," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld98-1.
    4. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Rates of Return of the German Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
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    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.
    3. Weller, Christian E., 2001. "Programs without alternative: Public pensions in the OECD," ZEI Working Papers B 15-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Afonso, Luís Eduardo & Fernandes, Reynaldo, 2005. "Uma Estimativa dos Aspectos Distributivos da Previdência Social no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 59(3), July.
    5. Kai A. Konrad & Gert Wagner, 2000. "Reform of the Public Pension System in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 200, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Sylvia A R Tijmstra & Adala Bwire, 2009. "Fiscal Decentralisation, Efficiency, and Growth," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(9), pages 2041-2062, September.
    7. Karsten Jeske, 2003. "Pension systems and aggregate shocks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 88(Q1), pages 15-31.
    8. Gedeon, Péter, 2001. "Merre tart a német jóléti állam?. Társadalombiztosítási alrendszerek Németországban [Where is the German welfare state going?. Social-insurance sub-systems in Germany]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 130-149.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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