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Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China

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  • Bruno Jetin
  • Luis Reyes Ortiz

Abstract

Rebalancing growth in favor of domestic consumption has been an objective of Chinese policy makers for over two decades. However, until recently little progress has been achieved. This article argues that the nature of the demand regime is a major reason for the limited rebalancing operated thus far. Until the great recession (2008–09), Chinese growth was profit-led, which means that an increase in the profit share of income had a positive effect on investment and net exports that exceeded the negative effect on consumption. The fact that the profit share increased by 10 percentage points explains why the rate of growth boomed over the 1996–2007 period. We show that after the great recession, China’s demand regime turned wage-led, which means that an increase in the wage share results in a positive effect on households’ consumption which exceeds the negative effect on investment and net exports. The conclusion is that a pro-labor policy may now contribute to rebalance China’s growth and make it less dependent on exports, overinvestment and carbon-intensive industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Jetin & Luis Reyes Ortiz, 2020. "Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 341-366, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:43:y:2020:i:3:p:341-366
    DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1774392
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jiménez, Valeria, 2020. "Wage shares and demand regimes in Central America: An empirical analysis for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, 1970-2016," IPE Working Papers 151/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. Benjamin Jungmann, 2023. "Growth drivers in emerging capitalist economies: building blocks for a post-Keynesian analysis and an empirical exploration of the years before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 349-386, July.
    4. Sarah Jacobs & Oladipo Olalekan David & Abigail Stiglingh-Van Wyk, 2023. "The Impact of Urbanization on Economic Growth in Gauteng Province, South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 1-11, March.
    5. Akcay, Ümit & Hein, Eckhard & Jungmann, Benjamin, 2021. "Financialisation and macroeconomic regimes in emerging capitalist economies before and after the Great Recession," IPE Working Papers 158/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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