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Wage- versus profit-led growth in the context of globalization and public spending: the political aspects of wage-led recovery

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  • Onaran, Özlem

Abstract

This paper presents the empirical evidence about the impact of the simultaneous race to the bottom in labour’s share on growth after taking global interactions into account based on the Post-Kaleckian theoretical framework developed by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990). The world economy and large economic areas are likely to be wage-led; and parameter shifts in different periods are unlikely to make a difference in this finding. The effects that can come from a wage-led recovery on growth and hence employment are positive, however they are also modest in magnitude. We then present an alternative scenario based on a policy mix of wage increases and public investment. A coordinated mix of polices in the G20 targeted to increase the share of wages in GDP by 1%-5% in the next 5 years and to raise public investment in social and physical infrastructure by 1% of GDP in each country can create up to 5.84% more growth in G20 countries. The final section addresses the political aspects and barriers to a wage-led recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Onaran, Özlem, 2016. "Wage- versus profit-led growth in the context of globalization and public spending: the political aspects of wage-led recovery," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 15817, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:gpe:wpaper:15817
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    File URL: http://gala.gre.ac.uk/id/eprint/15817/1/15817_Onaran_Wage%20versus%20profit%20led%20growth%20%28AAM%29%202016.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Hein, Eckhard & Prante, Franz & Bramucci, Alessandro, 2022. "Financialisation and the potentials for a progressive equality-, sustainability- and domestic demand-led regime: A post-Keynesian simulation approach," IPE Working Papers 192/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Bruno Jetin & Luis Reyes Ortiz, 2020. "Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 341-366, July.
    3. Hein, Eckhard, 2017. "Financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation: The role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007-9," IPE Working Papers 90/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Özlem Onaran, 2016. "Secular stagnation and progressive economic policy alternatives," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 229-240, September.
    5. Eckhard Hein & Franz Prante & Alessandro Bramucci, 2023. "Demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism and a progressive equality-, sustainability- and domestic demand-led alternative: A post-Keynesian simulation approach," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(305), pages 181-202.
    6. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    7. Eckhard Hein & Eckhard Achim Truger, 2017. "Opportunities and limits of rebalancing the Eurozone via wage policies," FMM Working Paper 06-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. A Heise, 2020. "Wage-led and profit-led regime research – promising scientific research programme or scientific cul-de-sac?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(2), pages 31-49, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage share; Wage-led growth; Globalization; Public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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