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Cycles and trends in U.S. net borrowing flows

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho
  • Codrina Rada von Arnim
  • Lance Taylor
  • Luca Zamparelli

Abstract

Trend and cyclical patterns of household, business, government, and foreign net borrowing shares of gross domestic product are reviewed using diagrams and covariance decompositions of the identity stating that the sum of the shares equals zero. Household and business net borrowing shares and thereby those sectors' contributions to effective demand are procyclical. Household borrowing over the cycle is led by residential investment. Consumption varies countercyclically, but it is offset by rising taxes as opposed to saving, suggesting that "consumption smoothing" by households as featured in much macro theory is not empirically important. Procyclicality of private net borrowing is countered by a countercyclical government deficit along traditional lines. In terms of trends, "twin" fiscal and foreign deficits appear infrequently, with the household and external deficits being much more closely related. The former is linked to a strong upward trend in health-care spending as a share of disposable income, with a corresponding downward trend in saving after the early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada von Arnim & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2008. "Cycles and trends in U.S. net borrowing flows," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 623-648, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:623-648
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    Cited by:

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    3. Fusheng Xie & Jiateng Wang & Zhi Li, 2023. "The Greek Crisis Under Structural Constraints," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 309-332, June.
    4. Florentin Glötzl & Armon Rezai, 2018. "A sectoral net lending perspective on Europe [Fiscal, foreign, and private net borrowing: widely accepted theories don’t closely fit the facts]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(3), pages 779-795.
    5. José Antonio Ocampo, 2017. "Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System," Books, Red Investigadores de Economía, number 2017-11, March.
    6. Fernando Rugitsky, 2015. "Financialization, Housing Bubble, and the Great Recession: an interpretation based on a circuit of capital model," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_24, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Ocampo, José Antonio, 2014. "The provision of global liquidity: The global reserve system," WIDER Working Paper Series 141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2013. "Inequality and Household Finance during the Consumer Age," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_752, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Armon Rezai, 2013. "Cycles of demand and distribution and monetary policy in the U.S. economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 231-250.
    10. Laura Barbosa de Carvalho, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances and Economic Growth: a two-country model with real-financial linkages," Working Papers 1203, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    11. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
    12. Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2013. "Foreign and Public Deficits in Greece: In Search of Causality," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_771, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. José Antonio Ocampo, 2014. "The Provision of Global Liquidity: The Global Reserve System," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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