The determinants of currency market forecasts: an empirical study
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2002.11051346
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- John Harvey, 2001. "The Determinants of Currency Market Forecasts: An Empirical Study," Working Papers 200102, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
References listed on IDEAS
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983.
"The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?,"
NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel, "undated". "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," Working Paper 32044, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1982. "The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: sampling error or misspecification?," International Finance Discussion Papers 204, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John T. Harvey, 1996. "Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: A Survey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 567-583, July.
- John T. Harvey & Stephen F. Quinn, 1997. "Expectations and Rational Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 615-622, June.
- Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003.
"The Economics of Exchange Rates,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, January.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 1988.
"Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations,"
BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
- Eric J. Pentecost, 1993. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 355.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- John Harvey, 2009.
"Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008,"
Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
- John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Working Papers 200901, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003.
"The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
- Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Taylor, Mark & Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M A Sánchez-Granero & J E Trinidad-Segovia & J Clara-Rahola & A M Puertas & F J De las Nieves, 2017. "A model for foreign exchange markets based on glassy Brownian systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, December.
- Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009.
"Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
- Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone: a heterogeneous expectations approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Christian Bauer & Paul De Grauwe & Stefan Reitz, 2007. "Exchange Rates Dynamics in a Target Zone – A Heterogeneous Expectations Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2080, CESifo.
- John Harvey, 2001. "Psychological and Institutional Forces and the Determination of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 200101, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
- Mohamed, Zubair M., 1999. "An integrated production-distribution model for a multi-national company operating under varying exchange rates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92, January.
- John Harvey, 2009.
"Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008,"
Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
- John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Working Papers 200901, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
- Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
- Darvas, Zsolt, 1996. "Kamatkülönbség és árfolyam-várakozások az előre bejelentett kúszó árfolyamrendszerben [Interest differential and exchange rate expectations in the preannounced crawling band system of Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 920-947.
- Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012.
"FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective,"
International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
- Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2012. "FX intervention in the yen-US dollar market: A coordination channel perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1765, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008.
"The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
- Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics.
- Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & William Iván Moreno-Jimenez & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2020. "La Magnitud y Duración del Efecto de la Intervención por Subastas sobre el Mercado Cambiario: El caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1142, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857.
- Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
- Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003.
"The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
- Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Mark & Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008.
"Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-321, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005.
"Biases in FX-forecasts: Evidence from panel data,"
Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-111, August.
- Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-Forecasts: Evidence from Panel Data," Research Notes 19, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002.
"How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
- Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More about this item
JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:33-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MPKE20 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.