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The Effect of RMB Internationalization on Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Bilateral Swap Agreements

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  • Fan Zhang
  • Miaojie Yu
  • Jiantuo Yu
  • Yang Jin

Abstract

This article evaluates the implication of renminbi (RMB) internationalization on economic integration between China and its partners, especially for Belt and Road countries. We collected data for all bilateral swap agreements between 2000 and 2016, and empirically explored the role of bilateral swap agreements in the bilateral trade flows between China and its partner countries. We examined the effects in gravity equation and found a significant positive effect of swap agreements on trade. In our benchmark model, the negotiations of swap agreement would improve 30.4% of bilateral trade values between China and its partners. For Belt and Road countries, the effect is even stronger. This effect is both statistically and economically significant. It is also robust for alternative measure of swap agreements and alternative estimation method. We argue that RMB swap agreements are beneficial for the economic integration between China and Belt and Road countries through facilitating bilateral trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Zhang & Miaojie Yu & Jiantuo Yu & Yang Jin, 2017. "The Effect of RMB Internationalization on Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Bilateral Swap Agreements," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2845-2857, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:12:p:2845-2857
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1382346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Issues for Renminbi Internationalization : An Overview," Finance Working Papers 23961, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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    8. Haihong Gao & Yongding Yu, 2011. "Internationalisation of the renminbi," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Currency internationalisation: lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific, volume 61, pages 105-124, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Longcan Zou & Jim Huangnan Shen & Jun Zhang & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2022. "What is the rationale behind China's infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 605-633, July.
    2. Lauren A. Johnston, 2019. "The Belt and Road Initiative: What is in it for China?," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 40-58, January.
    3. Matthew Harrison & Geng Xiao, 2019. "China and Special Drawing Rights—Towards a Better International Monetary System," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Yang‐Chao Wang & Jui‐Jung Tsai & Shushu Li & Yiying Huang, 2023. "The impacts of RMB internationalization on onshore and offshore RMB markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 502-523, September.
    5. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2022. "Time-varying spillover effects and investment strategies between WTI crude oil, natural gas and Chinese stock markets related to belt and road initiative," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Chai, Li & Wang, Yuqi & Qi, Xiaohong, 2024. "Cross-category connectedness between Shanghai crude oil futures and Chinese stock markets related to the Belt and Road Initiative," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Syeda Rabab Mudakkar, 2020. "China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Rise of Yuan–Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, Jan-June.
    8. Fengming Qin & Junru Zhang & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2018. "RMB Exchange Rates and Volatility Spillover across Financial Markets in China and Japan," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
    9. Schclarek, Alfredo & Xu, Jiajun & Amuchastegui, Pedro, 2022. "Panda bond financing of the Belt and Road Initiative: An analysis of monetary mechanisms and financial risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Mingchun Cao & Ilan Alon, 2020. "Intellectual Structure of the Belt and Road Initiative Research: A Scientometric Analysis and Suggestions for a Future Research Agenda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-40, August.
    11. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Dancing with dragon: The RMB and developing economies’ currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Alfredo Schclarek & Jiajun Xu, 2021. "Panda Bond Financing of the Belt & Road Initiative: An Analysis of Monetary Mechanisms and Financial Risks," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4519, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    13. Wei, Zhixi & Luo, Yu & Huang, Zili & Guo, Kun, 2020. "Spillover effects of RMB exchange rate among B&R countries: Before and during COVID-19 event," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    14. Hao, Kaixuan & Han, Liyan & Li, (Tony) Wei, 2022. "The impact of China's currency swap lines on bilateral trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 173-183.

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