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The Optimal Rate of Inflation with Trending Relative Prices

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  • ALEXANDER L. WOLMAN

Abstract

The relative prices of different categories of consumption goods have been trending over time. Assuming they are exogenous with respect to monetary policy, these trends imply that monetary policy cannot stabilize the prices of all consumption categories. If prices are sticky, monetary policy then must trade off relative price distortions within different categories of consumption. Optimally, more weight should be placed on stabilizing goods and services prices that are less flexible. Calibrating a simple sticky price model to U.S. data, we find that slight deflation is optimal, even absent transactions frictions leading to a demand for money. Optimality of deflation derives from the fact that relative prices have been trending up for services, whose nominal prices seem to be less flexible.
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  • Alexander L. Wolman, 2011. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation with Trending Relative Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 355-384, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i::p:355-384
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    Cited by:

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    6. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Fujiwara, Ippei & Ghironi, Fabio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Mineyama, Tomohide, 2022. "Revisiting the optimal inflation rate with downward nominal wage rigidity: The role of heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Takahashi, Shuhei, 2021. "The uniqueness of steady-state equilibrium under state-dependent pricing: The case of deflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "On quality bias and inflation targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 393-400.
    10. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    11. Alexander L. Wolman, 2015. "Relative Price Changes and the Optimal Inflation Rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 245-274.
    12. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2024. "Output-inflation trade-offs and the optimal inflation rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Robert Amano & Kevin Moran & Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2007. "Trend Inflation, Wage and Price Rigidities, and Welfare," Staff Working Papers 07-42, Bank of Canada.
    14. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Dora Xia & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Monetary policy, relative prices and inflation control: flexibility born out of success," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    15. Ikeda, Daisuke, 2015. "Optimal inflation rates with the trending relative price of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 20-33.
    16. Gerberding, Christina & Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix, 2010. "Price-level targeting when there is price-level drift," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Shu‐Hua Chen, 2018. "The Credit‐Channel Transmission Mechanism And The Nonlinear Growth And Welfare Effects Of Inflation And Taxes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 724-744, April.
    19. Weber, Henning, 2012. "The optimal inflation rate and firm-level productivity growth," Kiel Working Papers 1773, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Weber, Henning, 2015. "Innovation and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113087, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2021. "US Postwar Macroeconomic Fluctuations Without Indeterminacy," Carleton Economic Papers 21-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 25 May 2021.
    22. Gerberding, Christina & Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix, 2012. "Price-level targeting when there is price-level drift," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 757-768.
    23. Weber, Henning, 2012. "One for all: The ECB's inflation target," Kiel Policy Brief 54, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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