IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20202370.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the optimal inflation target from trends in relative prices

Author

Listed:
  • Adam, Klaus
  • Weber, Henning

Abstract

Using the official micro price data underlying the U.K. consumer price index, we document a new stylized fact for the life-cycle behavior of consumer prices: relative to a narrowly defined set of competing products, the price of individual products tends to fall over the product lifetime. We show that this data feature has important implications for the optimal inflation target. Constructing a sticky-price model featuring a product life cycle and heterogeneous relative-price trends, we derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions. We show how the optimal target can be estimated from the observed trends in relative prices. For the U.K. economy, we find the optimal target to be equal to 2.6% in 2016. It has steadily increased over the period 1996 to 2016 due to changes in relative price trends over this period. JEL Classification: E31

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus & Weber, Henning, 2020. "Estimating the optimal inflation target from trends in relative prices," Working Paper Series 2370, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202370
    Note: 321199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2370~54ad76d487.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Bils, 2009. "Do Higher Prices for New Goods Reflect Quality Growth or Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 637-675.
    2. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2019. "Missing Growth from Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2795-2822, August.
    4. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860.
    5. Daniel Melser & Iqbal A. Syed, 2016. "Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 509-533, September.
    6. Kehoe, Patrick & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2015. "Prices are sticky after all," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 35-53.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    8. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2012. "Labor-Market Frictions and Optimal Inflation," Working Paper Series 259, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Fujiwara, Ippei & Ghironi, Fabio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 299-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    12. Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2019. "Optimal Trend Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 702-737, February.
    13. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2012. "Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 304-345.
    14. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2010. "Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 691-723, June.
    15. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    16. Mikhail Golosov & Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2007. "Menu Costs and Phillips Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(2), pages 171-199.
    17. Marc J. Melitz & Sašo Polanec, 2015. "Dynamic Olley-Pakes productivity decomposition with entry and exit," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 362-375, June.
    18. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    20. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-583, June.
    21. Alexander L. Wolman, 2011. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation with Trending Relative Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 355-384, March.
    22. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 653-722, Elsevier.
    23. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    24. David Argente & Munseob Lee & Sara Moreira, 2018. "How do Firms Grow? The Life Cycle of Products Matters," 2018 Meeting Papers 1174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Ariel Burstein & Christian Hellwig, 2008. "Welfare Costs of Inflation in a Menu Cost Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 438-443, May.
    26. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
    27. Avinash Dixit, 1991. "Analytical Approximations in Models of Hysteresis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 141-151.
    28. Kim, Jinill & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2009. "How much inflation is necessary to grease the wheels?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 365-377, April.
    29. Fernando Alvarez & Martin Beraja & Martín Gonzalez-Rozada & Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, 2019. "From Hyperinflation to Stable Prices: Argentina’s Evidence on Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 451-505.
    30. Philip Bunn & Colin Ellis, 2012. "Examining The Behaviour Of Individual UK Consumer Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(558), pages 35-55, February.
    31. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "The Inflation-Output Trade-Off with Downward Wage Rigidities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1436-1466, June.
    32. Bergin, Paul R. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2008. "The extensive margin and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1222-1237, October.
    33. Susan Athey & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "The optimal degree of monetary policy discretion," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Hahn, Volker & Marenčák, Michal, 2020. "Price points and price dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 127-144.
    35. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2016. "Labor market frictions and optimal steady-state inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 67-79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam, Klaus & Gautier, Erwan & Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2022. "The case for a positive euro area inflation target: Evidence from france, germany and italy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 140-153.
    2. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 9/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), September.
    3. Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2023. "Micro price heterogeneity and optimal inflation," Occasional Paper Series 322, European Central Bank.
    4. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," CEPR Discussion Papers 17289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," CEPR Discussion Papers 17289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benjamin Bittschi & Josef Baumgartner, 2023. "Kollektivvertragsverhandlungen in Zeiten hoher Inflation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), pages 613-632, September.
    10. Schoenle, Raphael & L'Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2019. "Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2019. "Price Trends Over the Product Life Cycle and the Optimal Inflation Target," CESifo Working Paper Series 7889, CESifo.
    2. Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2019. "Optimal Trend Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 702-737, February.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Weber, Henning, 2017. "Optimal Trend Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Adam, Klaus & Gautier, Erwan & Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2022. "The case for a positive euro area inflation target: Evidence from france, germany and italy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 140-153.
    5. Weber, Henning, 2015. "Innovation and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113087, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Herve Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2019. "The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 173-255.
    7. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    8. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2024. "Output-inflation trade-offs and the optimal inflation rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Weber, Henning, 2011. "Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Anthony M. Diercks, 2015. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Anthony Diercks, 2016. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Daisuke Miyakawa & Koki Oikawa & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Reallocation Effects Of Monetary Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 947-975, May.
    13. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Trade, unemployment, and monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Mineyama, Tomohide, 2022. "Revisiting the optimal inflation rate with downward nominal wage rigidity: The role of heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Weber, Henning, 2013. "Learning By Doing in New Firms and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79761, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Oikawa, Koki & Ueda, Kozo, 2018. "The optimal inflation rate under Schumpeterian growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 114-125.
    17. Santoro, Sergio & Weber, Henning, 2023. "Micro price heterogeneity and optimal inflation," Occasional Paper Series 322, European Central Bank.
    18. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Fujiwara, Ippei & Ghironi, Fabio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    19. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working Papers 22-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-137.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    micro price data; optimal inflation; U.K. inflation target;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.