IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v27y2022i4p4058-4084.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Growth and wage effects of the monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Óscar Afonso

Abstract

We analyse the effects of the monetary policy (inflation) on a set of real macroeconomic variables, via cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraints and an ‘inflation‐rate’ complexity R&D effect in a knowledge‐driven horizontal R&D growth model with skilled and unskilled labour. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that the monetary policy has no effect on firm‐size growth, but a negative impact on economic growth, real interest rate, skill premium, R&D intensity, and welfare; positive influence on the velocity of money. The sign of the theoretical relationships is in line with the dominant empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Óscar Afonso, 2022. "Growth and wage effects of the monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4058-4084, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:4058-4084
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2359
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2359
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2359?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tommasi, Mariano, 1994. "The Consequences of Price Instability on Search Markets: Toward Understanding the Effects of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1385-1396, December.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mowery, David C., 1983. "Industrial Research and Firm Size, Survival, and Growth in American Manufacturing, 1921–1946: An Assessment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 953-980, December.
    4. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Pedro Mazeda Gil & Óscar Afonso, 2021. "Inflation, complexity and endogenous growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(23), pages 2631-2646, May.
    5. Miguel Molico, 2006. "The Distribution Of Money And Prices In Search Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 701-722, August.
    6. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    7. Akinsola Foluso A. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2017. "Inflation and Economic Growth: a Review of The International Literature," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 20(3), pages 41-56, September.
    8. Philippe Aghion, 2017. "Entrepreneurship and growth: lessons from an intellectual journey," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01599618, HAL.
    9. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    10. Jones, Charles I & Williams, John C, 2000. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 65-85, March.
    11. Philippe Aghion, 2017. "Entrepreneurship and growth: lessons from an intellectual journey," Post-Print halshs-01599618, HAL.
    12. Sequeira, Tiago Neves & Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Afonso, Oscar, 2018. "Endogenous growth and entropy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 100-120.
    13. Philippe Aghion & David Hemous & Enisse Kharroubi, 2009. "Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth," NBER Working Papers 15119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 783-799, May.
    15. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    16. Li, Tailong & Pan, Shiyuan & Zou, Heng-fu, 2015. "Directed Technological Change: A Knowledge-Based Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 116-143, January.
    17. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Moderate Inflation and the Deflation–Depression Link," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 787-798, June.
    18. Antonio Mele & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2019. "Velocity in the Long Run: Money and Structural Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 393-410, January.
    19. Chu, Angus C. & Ning, Lei & Zhu, Dongming, 2019. "Human Capital And Innovation In A Monetary Schumpeterian Growth Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1875-1894, July.
    20. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, January.
    21. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Lerner, Josh, 2010. "The Financing of R&D and Innovation," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-639, Elsevier.
    22. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    24. Patrizio Pagano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2003. "Firm Size Distribution and Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(2), pages 255-274, June.
    25. Alam, Pervaiz & Walton, Karen Schuele, 1995. "Information Asymmetry and Valuation Effects of Debt Financing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 289-311, May.
    26. Rodrigo Costamagna, 2015. "Inflation and R&D investment," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 143-163.
    27. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    28. Ciccone, Antonio & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-59, April.
    29. Antonio Mele & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2019. "Velocity in the Long Run: Money and Structural Transformation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 393-410, January.
    30. Christopher Laincz & Pietro Peretto, 2006. "Scale effects in endogenous growth theory: an error of aggregation not specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-288, September.
    31. Angus C. Chu & Ching‐Chong Lai, 2013. "Money and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in an R&D Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 233-249, February.
    32. Chiu, Jonathan & Molico, Miguel, 2010. "Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 428-438, May.
    33. Joonkyung Ha & Peter Howitt, 2007. "Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 733-774, June.
    34. Ufuk Akcigit, 2009. "Firm Size, Innovation Dynamics and Growth," 2009 Meeting Papers 1267, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Knowledge technology and economic growth: recent evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Research 06, National Bank of Belgium.
    36. Wen, Yi, 2015. "Money, liquidity and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-24.
    37. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    38. Chu, Angus C. & Ji, Lei, 2016. "Monetary Policy And Endogenous Market Structure In A Schumpeterian Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 1127-1145, July.
    39. Erosa, Andres & Ventura, Gustavo, 2002. "On inflation as a regressive consumption tax," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 761-795, May.
    40. Paul Segerstrom & Elias Dinopoulos, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June.
    41. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    42. Zantout, Zaher Z, 1997. "A Test of the Debt-Monitoring Hypothesis: The Case of Corporate R&D Expenditures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 21-48, February.
    43. Brown, James R. & Martinsson, Gustav & Petersen, Bruce C., 2012. "Do financing constraints matter for R&D?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1512-1529.
    44. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous entry of heterogeneous firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 392-409.
    45. Boyan Jovanovic, 1993. "The Diversification of Production," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1 Microec), pages 197-247.
    46. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 2001. "The Effects of Inflation on the Number of Firms and Firm Size," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 251-271, May.
    47. Mikkelson, Wayne H. & Partch, M. Megan, 2003. "Do Persistent Large Cash Reserves Hinder Performance?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 275-294, June.
    48. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1993. "Debt crisis, adjustment policies and capital formation in developing countries: Where do we stand?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 127-140, January.
    49. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Gustavo Iglésias, 2020. "Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1147-1197, August.
    50. Lyandres, Evgeny & Palazzo, Berardino, 2016. "Cash Holdings, Competition, and Innovation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(6), pages 1823-1861, December.
    51. Akyol, Ahmet, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1245-1269, September.
    52. Muhammad Khan & Waqas Hanif, 2020. "Institutional quality and the relationship between inflation and economic growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 627-649, February.
    53. Boel, Paola & Camera, Gabriele, 2009. "Financial sophistication and the distribution of the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 968-978, October.
    54. Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2015. "Which investments do firms protect? Liquidity management and real adjustments when access to finance falls sharply," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 441-465.
    55. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2011. "Labor market rigidity and productivity growth in a model of innovation-driven growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1058-1067, May.
    56. Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of the Economics of Innovation," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    57. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    58. Ang, James B. & Madsen, Jakob B., 2015. "What Drives Ideas Production Across The World?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 79-115, January.
    59. Richard Deitz & James A. Orr, 2006. "A leaner, more skilled U.S. manufacturing workforce," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Feb/Mar).
    60. Brown, James R. & Petersen, Bruce C., 2011. "Cash holdings and R&D smoothing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 694-709, June.
    61. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    62. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
    63. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    64. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    65. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
    66. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K, 1992. "Alternative Approaches to Money and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 553-562, November.
    67. Philippe Aghion, 2017. "Entrepreneurship and growth: lessons from an intellectual journey," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oscar Afonso, 2023. "Losers and losses of COVID-19: a directed technical change analysis with fiscal and monetary policies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1777-1821, June.
    2. Afonso, Oscar & Pinho, Mafalda, 2022. "How to reverse a negative asymmetric labor productivity shock in the European Union? A directed technical change analysis with fiscal and monetary policies," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-67.
    3. Oscar Afonso & Pedro G. Lima, 2023. "Effects of monetary policy on the skill premium and the growth rate in a directed technical change model with heterogeneous cash‐in‐advance constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4020-4036, October.
    4. Oscar Afonso & Rosa Forte, 2023. "How powerful are fiscal and monetary policies in a directed technical change model with humans and robots?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3008-3032, July.
    5. Afonso, Oscar, 2023. "Inflation, technological-knowledge bias, and wages," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 91-103.
    6. Zheng, Zhijie & Huang, Chien-Yu & Yang, Yibai, 2021. "Inflation And Growth: A Non-Monotonic Relationship In An Innovation-Driven Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1199-1226, July.
    7. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Gustavo Iglésias,, 2018. "Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," CEF.UP Working Papers 1802, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. Hu, Ruiyang & Yang, Yibai & Zheng, Zhijie, 2021. "Inflation, endogenous quality increment, and economic growth," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 72-86.
    9. Afonso, Oscar & Gil, Pedro Mazeda, 2024. "Territorial comparative advantage, wage inequality, and monetary policy in the global world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Gustavo Iglésias, 2020. "Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1147-1197, August.
    11. Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Iglésias, Gustavo & Guimarães, Luís, 2023. "Endogenous growth and monetary policy: How do interest-rate feedback rules shape nominal and real transitional dynamics?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi, 2014. "R&D And Economic Growth In A Cash‐In‐Advance Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(2), pages 507-524, May.
    13. Huang, Chien-Yu & Yang, Yibai & Zheng, Zhijie, 2018. "Monetary Policy in a Schumpeterian Growth Model with Two R&D Sectors," MPRA Paper 87462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Angus C. Chu, 2022. "Inflation, innovation, and growth: A survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 863-878, July.
    15. Afonso, Oscar, 2023. "Fiscal and monetary effects on environmental quality, growth, and welfare," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 202-219.
    16. Hung‐Ju Chen, 2018. "Innovation, FDI, and the long‐run effects of monetary policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1101-1129, November.
    17. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Haichao Fan & Yuichi Furukawa, 2021. "Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth in a Schumpeterian Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(3), pages 874-909, July.
    18. Pedro Rui Mazeda Gil & Paulo Brito & Óscar Afonso, 2008. "A Model of Quality Ladders with Horizontal Entry," FEP Working Papers 296, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2018. "Innovation and imitation in a product-cycle model with FDI and cash-in-advance constraints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 91-114.
    20. Chien-Yu Huang & Juin-Jen Chang & Lei Ji, 2013. "Cash-In-Advance Constraint on R&D in a Schumpeterian Growth Model with an Endogenous Market Structure," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 13-A009, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:4058-4084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.