IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lrc/larijb/v4y2014i7p100-108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D

    (Senior Lecturer. Department of Economics & Statistics, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, 20400, Sri Lanka,)

  • A. A. S. Priyadarshanee

    (Economics and Statistics, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, 20400, Sri Lanka,)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of government budget deficit on debt sustainability in Sri Lanka by using a novel methodological approach. The study used annual time series data from 1960 to 2012 in Sri Lanka for empirical testing. Sustainability of government debtis tested by using face value, market value and discounted market value of government debt as a proportion of GDP. Discounted market value of debt to GDP ratio was calculated using weighted average interest rate. Results of Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests indicate that debt ratios are non-stationary implying the existence of an unsustainable debt outlook. Results of the Chow test, employed to test if a structural break can be observed in 1978 as a result of moving away from the command economy to a market-oriented economy, indicate that the policy change has not led to have any fixed change in the mean of debt serials. The results compel us to conclude that public debt in Sri Lankan is not sustainable, so that a switch is required from foreign debt to other sources of financing of fiscal deficit or deficit reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D & A. A. S. Priyadarshanee, 2014. "Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 4(7), pages 100-108, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:lrc:larijb:v:4:y:2014:i:7:p:100-108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://thejournalofbusiness.org/index.php/site/article/view/551/446
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    3. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. O. Cevdet Akcay & C. Emre Alper & Suleyman Ozmucur, 2001. "Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey(1970-2000)," Working Papers 2001/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rathnayake, Anuruddhi Shanika K, 2020. "Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D & A. A. S. Priyadarshanee, 2014. "Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(7), pages 100-108, July.
    2. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    3. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Wu, Chien-Wei & Chiu, Hsien-Hung & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Covariate unit root tests under structural change and asymmetric STAR dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 101-112.
    4. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    5. Krishanu Pradhan, 2014. "Is India’s Public Debt Sustainable?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(2), pages 241-266, December.
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Philip Bodman, 1997. "The Australian Trade Balance and Current Account: a Time Series Perspective," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 39-57.
    8. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2001. "External debt sustainability: empirical evidence in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td154, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    10. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
    11. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Algeria: a Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 962, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    12. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    13. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2005. "Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-237, April.
    15. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3211-3219, August.
    16. Makrydakis, Stelios & Tzavalis, Elias & Balfoussias, Athanassios, 1998. "Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, January.
    17. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    18. Thanh Dat Nguyen & Sandy Suardi & Chew Lian Chua, 2017. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits During The Global Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 201-215, January.
    19. Felix Kimtai Kiminyei, 2019. "Empirical Investigation on the Relationship among Kenyan Public Debt, Tax Revenue and Government Expenditure," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(1), pages 142-159, March.
    20. Yoshida, Motonori, 2023. "Chronological changes of government sectors’ fiscal policies and fiscal sustainability in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lrc:larijb:v:4:y:2014:i:7:p:100-108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Al Hossain (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.thejournalofbusiness.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.