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Is India’s Public Debt Sustainable?

Author

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  • Krishanu Pradhan

    (Krishanu Pradhan, Research Scholar at Centre of Economics Studies and Policy, Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Bangalore-72, India. E-mail: krishanup@gmail.com)

Abstract

The article assesses the sustainability of public debt in India based on historical time series data on non-monetized liabilities/gross domestic product (GDP), revenue/GDP and expenditure/GDP of the combined central and state governments. The assessment based on unit root analysis of non-monetized liabilities/GDP, and co-integration analysis of expenditure/GDP and revenue/GDP shows the sustainability of public debt, mainly on account of accelerating GDP growth, lower cost of government borrowing, favourable currency composition and longer maturity profile of debt. JEL Classification: H62, H63, C22, C32, C51

Suggested Citation

  • Krishanu Pradhan, 2014. "Is India’s Public Debt Sustainable?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 3(2), pages 241-266, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:3:y:2014:i:2:p:241-266
    DOI: 10.1177/2277978714548637
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
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    5. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
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    10. Rangarajan, C. & Srivastava, D.K., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and government debt in India: Implications for growth and stabilisation," Working Papers 05/35, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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    12. Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2004. "Structural Breaks, Unit Roots, and Cointegration: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(2), pages 196-219, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & Sidheswar Panda, 2020. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(3), pages 253-284, August.
    2. P.S. Renjith & K.R. Shanmugam, 2018. "Sustainable Debt Policies of Indian State Governments," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 224-243, May.
    3. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & Sidheswar Panda, 2019. "How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers id:12980, eSocialSciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; budgetary deficits; debt management; unit root; co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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