IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/liu/liucej/v7y2010i1p229-253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)

Author

Listed:
  • Péter Halmai
  • Viktória Vásáry

Abstract

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by their nominal and real convergence performance. These tendencies are of special importance considering further enlargement of the Eurozone. The financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted, however, in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. The paper considers the experiences gained in real convergence, the catch-up processes and their future prospects. As for nominal convergence, only those factors were analysed which affect real convergence directly. In particular, the analysis focuses on the sustainability of the convergence processes. The possible trends of longer term growth and convergence processes are presented based on a qualitative analysis representing the supply side approach. The analysis is aimed at revealing potential – not insignificant – risks and threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:229-253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ejce.liuc.it/18242979201001/182429792010070110.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    5. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    7. Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    8. Arjan Lejour & Vladimir Solanic & Paul Tang, 2009. "EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 127-144, May.
    9. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    10. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:45:y:2007:i::p:367-409 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    12. Alfonso ARPAIA & Alessandro TURRINI, 2008. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short-Term Adjustment," EcoMod2008 23800006, EcoMod.
    13. Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: A Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 2004/002, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2007. "Monetary Integration of the New EU Member States: What Sets the Pace of Euro Adoption?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 367-409, June.
    18. Crafts, Nicholas & Kaiser, Kai, 2004. "Long-term growth prospects in transition economies: a reappraisal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-118, March.
    19. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank.
    20. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2002. "The effects of integration on regional disparities: Convergence, divergence or both?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 539-567, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kertész, Krisztián, 2022. "A nemzetgazdasági konvergencia mozgatórugói az Európai Unióban [Drivers of national economic convergence in the European Union]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 962-980.
    2. Elekes, Andrea, 2011. "Cohesion and/or Growth? – Regional Dimensions of Convergence and Growth in Hungary," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(1), pages 108-124.
    3. Gyódi Kristóf & Sobolewski Maciej & Ziembiński Michał, 2017. "What Drives Price Dispersion in the European E-commerce Industry?," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 3(50), pages 53-71, December.
    4. Matkowski, Zbigniew & Prochniak, Mariusz & Rapacki, Ryszard, 2016. "Real Income Convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, Present, and Prospects," EconStor Conference Papers 146992, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Farkas, Beáta, 2011. "A közép-kelet-európai piacgazdaságok fejlődési lehetőségei az Európai Unióban [The development opportunities for the Central-East European market economies within the European Union]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 412-429.
    6. Mats Johansson & Pia Nilsson & Hans Weslund, 2014. "Demographic and economic trends in a rural Europe in transition," ERSA conference papers ersa14p445, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Szűcs, Gábor, 2023. "Halmai Péter (szerk.): A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió jövője. Európai perspektívák. Ludovika Egyetemi Kiadó, Budapest, 2021 [Halmai Péter (ed.): The future of the Economic and Monetary Union. Europe," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 233-241.
    8. Jubenot Marie-Noelle, 2013. "Applying The Kuznets Curve In Case Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 106-115, December.
    9. Cristina Tatomir & Ileana Alexe, 2011. "Romania: Climbing The Ladder For A Better Future. When Will It Reach Eu And Euro Area?," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 192-196, December.
    10. Liobikiene, Genovaite & Chen, Xueli & Streimikiene, Dalia & Balezentis, Tomas, 2020. "The trends in bioeconomy development in the European Union: Exploiting capacity and productivity measures based on the land footprint approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Petrevski, Goran & Gockov, Gjorgji & Makreshanska-Mladenovska, Suzana, 2016. "Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 74655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Oct 2016.
    12. Roxana Badircea & Alina Manta & Alia Duta, 2016. "The Analysis of the Real Convergence of the Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(18), pages 45-50, December.
    13. Halmai, Péter, 2019. "Konvergencia és felzárkózás az euróövezetben [Convergence and catching up in the Euro zone]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 687-712.
    14. Zlatko Čehulić & Rajka Hrbić, 2019. "The impact of adopting the euro on the Croatian economy: What can be learned from other countries?," Notitia - journal for economic, business and social issues, Notitia Ltd., vol. 1(5), pages 73-90, December.
    15. Monica Raileanu Szeles & Rodrigo Mendieta Muñoz, 2016. "Analyzing the Regional Economic Convergence in Ecuador. Insights from Parametric and Nonparametric Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 43-65, June.
    16. Dan IVÃNESCU & Laura IVÃNESCU, 2016. "Estimating The Business Cycle Synchronization Between Romania And The Euro Area," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 36-42, March.
    17. Ovidiu Stoica & Otilia-Roxana Oprea & Ionel Bostan & Carmen Sandu Toderașcu & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "European Banking Integration and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    18. Kőrösi, István, 2022. "Quo Vadis Európa? - avagy az európai gazdasági integráció helyzete és kilátásai. Halmai Péter: Európai gazdasági integráció. Dialóg Campus, Budapest, 2020, 315 oldal [Quo Vadis Europe? - the state ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 787-796.
    19. Peter Howard-Jones & Jens Hölscher, 2020. "The Influence Of The Washington Consensus Programme On The Transitional Economies Of Eastern Europe – A Firm-Level Analysis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(226), pages 9-44, July – Se.
    20. Agnieszka Głodowska & Bożena Pera, 2019. "On the Relationship between Economic Integration, Business Environment and Real Convergence: The Experience of the CEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, June.
    21. Mirjana Gligoric, 2014. "Paths Of Income Convergence Between Country Pairs Within Europe," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(201), pages 123-156, April – J.
    22. Ryszard Rapacki & Mariusz Próchniak, 2014. "The Impact of EU Membership on Economic Growth and Real Convergence of the Central and Eastern European Countries," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 39.
    23. Greta Marianna & Lewandowski Krzysztof, 2015. "The Impact Of The Global Financial And Economic Crisis Convergence Process In OECD Countries," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 81-96, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.
    2. Massimiliano Affinito, 2011. "Convergence clubs, the euro-area rank and the relationship between banking and real convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 809, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Théophile T. Azomahou & Jalal El Ouardighi & Phu Nguyen Van & Thi Kim Cuong Pham, 2006. "Estimation semi-paramétrique de la convergence des régions européennes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 97-110.
    4. Olivier Parent & Abdallah Zouache, 2009. "Geographical Features vs. Institutional Factors: New Perspectives on The Growth of Africa and Middle-East," Working Papers 490, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2009.
    5. Beugelsdijk, S. & Smulders, J.A., 2009. "Bonding and Bridging Social Capital and Economic Growth," Discussion Paper 2009-27, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Beugelsdijk, S. & van Schaik, A.B.T.M., 2001. "Social Capital and Regional Economic Growth," Other publications TiSEM 874f4bc4-bef9-499c-829e-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Kurt Geppert & Andreas Stephan, 2008. "Regional disparities in the European Union: Convergence and agglomeration," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 193-217, June.
    8. Jan Nevima & Ingrid Majerová, 2015. "Application of ß – Convergence Approach in Visegrad Four Regions," Working Papers 0004, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    9. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    10. Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd & van Schaik, Ton, 2005. "Social capital and growth in European regions: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 301-324, June.
    11. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Convergence and the effects of spatial interaction," HWWA Discussion Papers 110, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    12. Li, Kui-Wai & Zhou, Xianbo & Pan, Zhewen, 2016. "Cross-country output convergence and growth: Evidence from varying coefficient nonparametric method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 32-41.
    13. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    14. Leone Leonida & Leone Leonida & Daniel Montolio, 2003. "Public Capital, Growth and Convergence in Spain. A Counterfactual Density Estimation Approach," Working Papers 2003/3, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    15. Barrios, Salvador & Strobl, Eric, 2009. "The dynamics of regional inequalities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 575-591, September.
    16. Arjan Lejour & Vladimir Solanic & Paul Tang, 2009. "EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 127-144, May.
    17. Mariusz Próchniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2006. "Modelowanie realnej konwergencji w skali międzynarodowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 1-31.
    18. Forte, Anabel & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Does social capital matter for European regional growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 47-64.
    19. Roberto Ezcurra & Pedro Pascual, 2006. "Factor decomposition of spatial disparities: The case of the European regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(6), pages 1-6.
    20. Jesus Lopez-Rodriguez & Andres Faiña, 2009. "Regional Policy and Convergence in Europe: The Case of Backward Regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1046-1053.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; real convergence; convergence crisis; potential growth; catch-up;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:229-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Ballestra (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/liuccit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.