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Kísérletek és kilátások Daniel Kahneman
[Experiments and prospects - in connection with Daniel Kahneman’s Nobel Prize]

Author

Listed:
  • Hámori, Balázs

Abstract

A tanulmány a 2002. évi közgazdasági Nobel-díjas, Daniel Kahneman életműve kapcsán a racionálistól eltérő magatartási mintákat foglalja össze, az utóbbi egy-két évtizedben virágzásnak indult kilátáselméletet bemutatva. A Kahneman és Tversky által kidolgozott kilátáselmélet, s ennek nyomán a gazdasági döntések anomáliáival foglalkozó, egyre terebélyesedő kutatások szerint a bizonytalanság körülményei közepette az emberek döntéseikben nem követik a várható hasznosság hipotézisnek megfelelő előrejelzéseket. Ehelyett ítéleteik meghozatalához néhány alapvető heurisztikus eljárást és hüvelykujjszabályt alkalmaznak. A hadászattól az orvoslásig a gazdaságon túl is számos területen életbevágó, hogy a logikusnak tetsző, de ellen-őrizetlen feltételezések helyett - Kahneman javaslatának megfelelően - a valós dön-tésekből induljunk ki, s előítéletek nélkül közelítsük meg az előítéletes emberi döntéseket. A döntések tényleges szabályosságainak a feltárását célzó - kezdetben meg-lehetősen kétkedően fogadott - pszichológiai kísérletek, illetve az azokhoz kapcsolódó elméletek napjaikra a közgazdaságtannak még olyan kritikus szekcióit is meghódították, mint a pénzügytan. A pénzügyi kutatások nem jelentéktelen hányada ma már a hatékony piacok elméleténél nagyobb előrejelző erejű pénzügyi viselkedéstan körében zajlik. Mindazonáltal számos kutató bírálja a kahnemani eszméket, s megfontolandó ellenvetéseket tesz mind a kilátáselmélet tételeit, mind a tételekhez veze-tő kísérleti módszereket illetően.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: B31, B59, D81.

Suggested Citation

  • Hámori, Balázs, 2003. "Kísérletek és kilátások Daniel Kahneman [Experiments and prospects - in connection with Daniel Kahneman’s Nobel Prize]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 779-799.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:636
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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