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Egyensúly és/vagy növekedés. Egy jól ismert dilemma az elmúlt évek magyar tapasztalatainak tükrében
[Equilibrium and/or growth. A well known dilemma as reflected by the Hungarian experiences of recent years]

Author

Listed:
  • Mellár, Tamás

Abstract

A rendszerváltás utáni időszak egyik legtöbbet vitatott gazdaságpolitikai kérdése az egyensúly és a növekedés viszonya. Elméletileg nemcsak a sokat emlegetett .rossz. (nem egyensúlyi) növekedés, hanem az egyensúlyt erősítő, .jó. növekedés is megalapozható, sőt empirikus igazolás is található rá a hazai gyakorlatban. Statisztikai adatokkal viszont sem a kiszorító hatás, sem az ikerdeficit jelensége nem mutatható ki az átmeneti magyar gazdaságban. Az 1995.1996-os időszakban alkalmazott restrikciós politika hatására a növekedés és az egyensúly közötti trade-off igen felemás módon érvényesült: a munkanélküliség és az infláció között nem volt megfigyelhető átváltás; a növekedés és a külső egyensúly között lényegében érvényesült; a növekedés, valamint az adósságállomány között pedig csak igen korlátozottan tekinthető érvényesnek az átváltás. Ez utóbbi átváltás kapcsán az adósságcsapdából való kiszabadulásra két másik stratégia is kínálkozik: a .kinövés., illetve a .kifogyás., amelyek elvileg egyaránt alkalmasnak látszanak a hazai adósságprobléma megoldására.

Suggested Citation

  • Mellár, Tamás, 1997. "Egyensúly és/vagy növekedés. Egy jól ismert dilemma az elmúlt évek magyar tapasztalatainak tükrében [Equilibrium and/or growth. A well known dilemma as reflected by the Hungarian experiences of rec," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 474-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kornai, János, 1995. "Négy jellegzetesség. A magyar fejlődés politikai gazdaságtani megközelítésben. Első rész [Four characteristic features. Development in Hungary from the aspect of political economy. First Part]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1097-1117.
    2. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1996. "Achieving Rapid Growth in the Transition Economies of Central Europe," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294091, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Kornai, János, 1995. "A magyar gazdaságpolitika dilemmái [Dilemmas of the Hungarian economic policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 633-649.
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    1. Balassa, Ákos, 1997. "Gondolatok a gazdasági növekedés néhány problémájáról [Some thoughts about a few problems of economic growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 721-737.
    2. Antal, László, 1998. "A kiigazítás - ahogy én látom [The adjustment - as I see it]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 97-122.
    3. Csillag, István, 2001. "Költségvetési összhangzattan. Diktatúrából a demokráciába? [Budgetary harmony. From dictatorship to democracy?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 824-843.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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