IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/2099.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A klímasemlegesség ára. Az üvegházhatású gázok csökkentésének költségbecslése HU-TIMES modellel
[The cost of (climate) independence - estimating the abatement cost of greenhouse gas emission in Hungary with the HU-TIMES model]

Author

Listed:
  • Mezősi, András
  • Rácz, Viktor

Abstract

A 2021-ben elfogadott Nemzeti Tiszta Fejlődési Stratégia (NTFS) kimondja, hogy Magyarországnak 2050-ig fokozatosan klímasemleges országgá kell válnia. Cikkünkben az e stratégia háttérszámításához használt HU-TIMES modellel elhárításiköltség-becslést végzünk. Parciális egyensúlyi modell használatával megállapítható, hogy az alapforgatókönyvhöz képest, amikor nincsenek emissziós korlátok - azaz a 2020. évi, szén-dioxid-egyenértékben kifejezett 46 millió tonna kibocsátáshoz képest -, 2050-re az üvegházhatású gázok kibocsátása 29,5 millió tonnára csökken. Számításaink szerint a jelenleg elérhető technológiai információk alapján a kitűzött céldátumra maximum 2 millió tonna szén-dioxid-egyenértékre csökkenthető a hazai energiaszektor kibocsátása. Ennek költségtöbblete 22 ezer milliárd forintot tesz ki a következő három évtizedben. Továbbá megvizsgáljuk, hogy az üvegházhatású gázok különböző mértékű csökkentése 2050-re mekkora többletköltséget jelent, és ezek a költségek mely szektorokban jelennek meg. Ehhez meghatározzuk a hazai energiaszektor üvegházhatásúgáz-elhárítási költséggörbéjét. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: O21, Q47, D60, C61.

Suggested Citation

  • Mezősi, András & Rácz, Viktor, 2023. "A klímasemlegesség ára. Az üvegházhatású gázok csökkentésének költségbecslése HU-TIMES modellel [The cost of (climate) independence - estimating the abatement cost of greenhouse gas emission in Hun," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 55-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2099
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2023.1.55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=2099
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2023.1.55?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Labriet, Maryse & Cabal, Helena & Lechón, Yolanda & Giannakidis, George & Kanudia, Amit, 2010. "The implementation of the EU renewable directive in Spain. Strategies and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2272-2281, May.
    2. Yue, Xiufeng & Deane, J.P. & O'Gallachoir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn, 2020. "Identifying decarbonisation opportunities using marginal abatement cost curves and energy system scenario ensembles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    4. Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    2. Damianakis, Nikolaos & Mouli, Gautham Ram Chandra & Bauer, Pavol & Yu, Yunhe, 2023. "Assessing the grid impact of Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps & PV generation in Dutch LV distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    3. Omar Shafqat & Elena Malakhtka & Nina Chrobot & Per Lundqvist, 2021. "End Use Energy Services Framework Co-Creation with Multiple Stakeholders—A Living Lab-Based Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Anna Kipping & Erik Trømborg, 2017. "Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Solène Goy & François Maréchal & Donal Finn, 2020. "Data for Urban Scale Building Energy Modelling: Assessing Impacts and Overcoming Availability Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Estiri, Hossein, 2014. "Building and household X-factors and energy consumption at the residential sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 178-184.
    7. Langevin, J. & Reyna, J.L. & Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. & Sandberg, N. & Fennell, P. & Nägeli, C. & Laverge, J. & Delghust, M. & Mata, É. & Van Hove, M. & Webster, J. & Federico, F. & Jakob, M. & Camaras, 2020. "Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Dujuan Yang & Harry Timmermans & Aloys Borgers, 2016. "The prevalence of context-dependent adjustment of activity-travel patterns in energy conservation strategies: results from a mixture-amount stated adaptation experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 79-100, January.
    10. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Filippín, Celina & Ricard, Florencia & Flores Larsen, Silvana & Santamouris, Mattheos, 2017. "Retrospective analysis of the energy consumption of single-family dwellings in central Argentina. Retrofitting and adaptation to the climate change," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1226-1241.
    12. Dieckhoener, Caroline & Hecking, Harald, 2012. "Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curves of the Residential Heating Market – a Microeconomic Approach," EWI Working Papers 2012-16, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    13. Rafael de Arce & Ramón Mahía, 2019. "Drivers of Electricity Poverty in Spanish Dwellings: A Quantile Regression Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Ana Escoto Castillo & Landy Sánchez Peña, 2017. "Diffusion of Electricity Consumption Practices in Mexico," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
    15. Du, Huibin & Li, Qun & Liu, Xi & Peng, Binbin & Southworth, Frank, 2021. "Costs and potentials of reducing CO2 emissions in China's transport sector: Findings from an energy system analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Ahn, Young-Hwan & Jeon, Wooyoung, 2019. "Power sector reform and CO2 abatement costs in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 202-214.
    17. Mastrucci, Alessio & Marvuglia, Antonino & Leopold, Ulrich & Benetto, Enrico, 2017. "Life Cycle Assessment of building stocks from urban to transnational scales: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 316-332.
    18. Kaandorp, Chelsea & Miedema, Tes & Verhagen, Jeroen & van de Giesen, Nick & Abraham, Edo, 2022. "Reducing committed emissions of heating towards 2050: Analysis of scenarios for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation of electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    19. Ahmet Feyzioglu, 2023. "A Study on the Control System of Electric Water Heaters for Decarbonization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-12, March.
    20. Wang, Lan & Lee, Eric W.M. & Hussian, Syed Asad & Yuen, Anthony Chun Yin & Feng, Wei, 2021. "Quantitative impact analysis of driving factors on annual residential building energy end-use combining machine learning and stochastic methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.