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A klímasemlegesség ára. Az üvegházhatású gázok csökkentésének költségbecslése HU-TIMES modellel
[The cost of (climate) independence - estimating the abatement cost of greenhouse gas emission in Hungary with the HU-TIMES model]

Author

Listed:
  • Mezősi, András
  • Rácz, Viktor

Abstract

A 2021-ben elfogadott Nemzeti Tiszta Fejlődési Stratégia (NTFS) kimondja, hogy Magyarországnak 2050-ig fokozatosan klímasemleges országgá kell válnia. Cikkünkben az e stratégia háttérszámításához használt HU-TIMES modellel elhárításiköltség-becslést végzünk. Parciális egyensúlyi modell használatával megállapítható, hogy az alapforgatókönyvhöz képest, amikor nincsenek emissziós korlátok - azaz a 2020. évi, szén-dioxid-egyenértékben kifejezett 46 millió tonna kibocsátáshoz képest -, 2050-re az üvegházhatású gázok kibocsátása 29,5 millió tonnára csökken. Számításaink szerint a jelenleg elérhető technológiai információk alapján a kitűzött céldátumra maximum 2 millió tonna szén-dioxid-egyenértékre csökkenthető a hazai energiaszektor kibocsátása. Ennek költségtöbblete 22 ezer milliárd forintot tesz ki a következő három évtizedben. Továbbá megvizsgáljuk, hogy az üvegházhatású gázok különböző mértékű csökkentése 2050-re mekkora többletköltséget jelent, és ezek a költségek mely szektorokban jelennek meg. Ehhez meghatározzuk a hazai energiaszektor üvegházhatásúgáz-elhárítási költséggörbéjét. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: O21, Q47, D60, C61.

Suggested Citation

  • Mezősi, András & Rácz, Viktor, 2023. "A klímasemlegesség ára. Az üvegházhatású gázok csökkentésének költségbecslése HU-TIMES modellel [The cost of (climate) independence - estimating the abatement cost of greenhouse gas emission in Hun," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 55-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2099
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2023.1.55
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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