IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1670.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A brexit közbenső állapota
[The interim phase of Brexit]

Author

Listed:
  • Török, Ádám

Abstract

Volt egyszer egy kvantumelméleti gondolatkísérlet, amely a "sem élő, sem holt" jellegű átmeneti állapotok megjelenítéséhez, a filozófiai érdeklődésűek számára pedig a bennük való metafizikai elmélyedéshez adott szemléletes eszközt. Ezt a gondolatkísérletet ma Erwin Schrödinger macskamodelljeként ismerjük. Ez a tanulmány a brexit elemzéséhez próbál kiindulni a macskamodellből. A brexit folyamata megkezdődött ugyan a 2016. júniusi brit népszavazással, jogi értelemben azonban valójában még nem is létezik. 2016 őszén ugyan várható, hogy a brit kormány 2017-ben elindítja majd a kiválás folyamatát, korántsem biztos azonban, hogy ezt a folyamatot belátható időn belül le is lehet zárni. Többek között azért, mert nem látható olyan kereskedelempolitikai modell, amely mindkét felet kielégítené. Például nem látszik kivitelezhetőnek, hogy az Egyesült Királyság az egységes európai piac keretei között maradna, az EU viszont elérné a munkaerőpiac nyitottságának megtartását. A két fél kompromisszumos stratégiája könnyen a halogatás lehet: folyamatosan hangsúlyozhatnák, hogy a brexit megkezdődött, miközben fenntartják az integráció 2016 előtti állapotát. Így pedig évekig fennmaradhatna a 2016-ban egyelőre megfigyelhető átmeneti macskaszituáció. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F13, F15.

Suggested Citation

  • Török, Ádám, 2017. "A brexit közbenső állapota [The interim phase of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 1-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1670
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2017.1.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1670
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18414/KSZ.2017.1.1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Sanne Zwart, 2016. "The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision," OECD Economic Policy Papers 16, OECD Publishing.
    2. G.I.P. Ottaviano & Joao Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2014. "Brexit or Fixit? The Trade and Welfare Effects of Leaving the European Union," Policy Analysis Papers 016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia-Lazaro, Aida & Mistak, Jakub & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2021. "Supply chain networks, trade and the Brexit deal: a general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. María C. Latorre & Zoryana Olekseyuk & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2020. "Foreign multinationals in service sectors: A general equilibrium analysis of Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2830-2859, November.
    3. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    4. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    5. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Welfens Paul J.J. & Baier Fabian & Kadiric Samir & Korus Arthur & Xiong Tian, 2019. "EU28 Capital Market Perspectives of a Hard BREXIT: Theory, Empirical Findings and Policy Options," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Georgios Kavetsos & Ichiro Kawachi & Ilias Kyriopoulos & Sotiris Vandoros, 2021. "The effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well‐being," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 707-731, April.
    8. Xing, Lizhi & Dong, Xianlei & Guan, Jun, 2017. "Global industrial impact coefficient based on random walk process and inter-country input–output table," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 576-591.
    9. Adele Bergin & Abian Garcia-Rodriguez & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth & Donal Smith, 2017. "Modelling the Medium- to Long-Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 305-316.
    10. McCorriston, Steve, 2017. "Evaluating the Economic Impact of Brexit: ‘Fearmongering’ or Just a Matter of Degree?," 2018 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2018, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 265729, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    12. Lizhi Xing & Qing Ye & Jun Guan, 2016. "Spreading Effect in Industrial Complex Network Based on Revised Structural Holes Theory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2017. "Ireland’s international trade and transport connections," Papers WP573, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Iain Begg, 2016. "Brexit: Why, What Next and How?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(1), pages 30-36, August.
    15. Ohr Renate, 2015. "Europäische Integration am Wendepunkt? Zum möglichen Austritt Großbritanniens aus der EU / European integration at a turning point? Consequences of a British exit for the EU," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 99-114, January.
    16. László Békési & Zsolt Kovalszky & Tímea Várnai, 2017. "Scenarios for potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2017/125, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    17. Kohnert, Dirk, 2021. "Le marteau du Brexit : répercussions pour les États-Unis et les relations transatlantiques au temps de Corona [The Brexit hammer : repercussions for the US and transatlantic relations in times of C," MPRA Paper 109399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea Waddle, 2020. "The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 76-103, January.
    19. Allub, Lian & Aragon, Nicolas, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of trade and FDI: The role of country size and bridge multinational production," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. Martina Lawless & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2019. "The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 189-207, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.