Relationship between commuting and non-commuting travel activity under the growing incidence of working from home and people’s attitudes towards COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the way we live and travel, possibly for many years to come. The ‘New Normal’ seems to be one that is best associated with living with COVID-19 rather that ‘after COVID-19’. After a year or more since the pandemic spread throughout the world, we have amassed a significant amount of evidence on what this is likely to mean for patterns of commuting activity in a setting where working for home (WFH) is becoming a more popular and legitimate alternative to choosing a commuting mode. With WFH continuing to some extent, non-commuting travel is also likely to change as workers and their families have greater flexibility in when and to what extent they conduct their shopping, social-recreation and other non-commuting trip activity. This paper recognises that all trip purpose activity is being impacted by the pandemic and that the drivers of changing number of trips by each and every trip purpose need to be identified as a way of establishing likely future levels of frequency of all trip making. In this paper we develop a series of trip making models for workers and non-workers in New South Wales and Queensland in a metropolitan and a regional setting, using data collected in late 2020. The influence of the number of days WFH is identified as an important influence on the number of one-way weekly trips for various trip purposes, which together with socioeconomic, geographic and attitudinal variables enable us to gain an understanding of what is driving levels of trip-purpose-specific travel during the pandemic. Elasticities and simulated changes are presented as a behaviourally rich way to understand the sensitivity of influences on the frequency of travel.