IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v46y2019i5d10.1007_s11116-018-9889-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of planned disruptions on rail passenger demand

Author

Listed:
  • Jeremy D. Shires

    (University of Leeds)

  • Manuel Ojeda-Cabral

    (University of Leeds)

  • Mark Wardman

    (University of Leeds
    SYSTRA)

Abstract

Disruptions to rail journeys are experienced by rail passengers on a daily basis throughout the world, with the impacts on passengers ranging from minimal to major. Such disruptions can be categorised as unplanned (e.g. extreme weather, vandalism, accidental damage to lines and power supplies etc.) or planned engineering-based disruptions. This paper focuses upon the latter, providing a valuable contribution to an area which is largely under researched, particularly in comparison to unplanned disruptions. Emphasis is placed upon understanding how passengers react to planned engineering-based disruptions: do they continue their journey (using the modified service); use other stations or routes that are not affected; make the journey on another day; travel to another destination; or simply not make that journey. Consideration is also given to how being aware or unaware may impact on passenger behaviour and whether disruptions of this type have any long run impacts over and above the short run. Ultimately, passenger behaviour translates into what can be substantial financial impacts for rail operators. The paper considers this, with the development of choice models based on both revealed preference (RP) and stated intentions (SI) data from a large scale face-to-face survey of rail users (7000+) and a smaller online panel of rail and non-rail users (500). These are used to estimate demand impacts resulting from planned engineering-based disruptions. Some of the key findings to emerge include: (1) Bus replacement services for disrupted rail services are inferior to rail diversions, with around three times more rail demand lost with bus replacement than with rail diversion; (2) The level of awareness prior to arriving at the station does not seem to have a large impact on the pattern of behavioural response, this may reflect the increased information available from mobile devices; (3) There is some evidence to suggest that rail travellers see planned disruptions as a ‘fixed cost’; and (4) Guaranteed connections have a benefit, to the tune of around 9 min, whilst rail travellers have higher disutility from longer periods of disruption to the extent of around 22 min.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy D. Shires & Manuel Ojeda-Cabral & Mark Wardman, 2019. "The impact of planned disruptions on rail passenger demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1807-1837, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:46:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s11116-018-9889-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-018-9889-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-018-9889-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-018-9889-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Wardman & Richard Batley, 2014. "Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations, elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1041-1069, September.
    2. Mark Wardman, 2012. "Review and meta-analysis of U.K. time elasticities of travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 465-490, May.
    3. Greg Marsden & Jillian Anable & Jeremy Shires & Iain Docherty, 2016. "Travel Behaviour Response to Major Transport System Disruptions: Implications for Smarter Resilience Planning," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2016/09, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liping Ge & Stefan Voß & Lin Xie, 2022. "Robustness and disturbances in public transport," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 191-261, March.
    2. He, Sylvia Y. & Tao, Sui & Sun, Ka Kit, 2024. "Attitudes towards public transport under extended disruptions and massive-scale transit dysfunction: A Hong Kong case study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 247-258.
    3. Chen, Yao & An, Kun, 2021. "Integrated optimization of bus bridging routes and timetables for rail disruptions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 484-498.
    4. Leng, Nuannuan & Corman, Francesco, 2020. "The role of information availability to passengers in public transport disruptions: An agent-based simulation approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 214-236.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wardman, Mark & Toner, Jeremy & Fearnley, Nils & Flügel, Stefan & Killi, Marit, 2018. "Review and meta-analysis of inter-modal cross-elasticity evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 662-681.
    2. Liang, Zhiyuan & Tang, Yili & Yu, Jianing & Wang, Yacan, 2024. "A collective incentive strategy to manage ridership rebound and consumer surplus in mass transit systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Kilgarriff, Paul & McDermott, T.K.J. & Vega, Amaya & Morrissey , Karyn & O’Donoghue, Cathal, 2018. "Flooding disruption and the impact on the spatial distribution of commuter’s income," Working Papers 309608, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    4. Abigail Bristow & Mark Wardman & V. Chintakayala, 2015. "International meta-analysis of stated preference studies of transportation noise nuisance," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 71-100, January.
    5. Mark Wardman & Jeremy Toner, 2020. "Is generalised cost justified in travel demand analysis?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 75-108, February.
    6. Strobel, Stephenson, 2024. "Who responds to longer wait times? The effects of predicted emergency wait times on the health and volume of patients who present for care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Vodopivec, Neža & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2019. "Transit system resilience: Quantifying the impacts of disruptions on diverse populations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Merkel, Axel & Holmgren, Johan, 2017. "Dredging the depths of knowledge: Efficiency analysis in the maritime port sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 63-74.
    9. Arkadiusz Adam Drabicki & Md Faqhrul Islam & Andrzej Szarata, 2021. "Investigating the Impact of Public Transport Service Disruptions upon Passenger Travel Behaviour—Results from Krakow City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Bursa, Bartosz & Mailer, Markus & Axhausen, Kay W., 2022. "Travel behavior on vacation: transport mode choice of tourists at destinations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 234-261.
    11. Wheat, Phill & Wardman, Mark, 2017. "Effects of timetable related service quality on rail demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 96-108.
    12. Manuel Ojeda-Cabral & Jeremy Shires & Mark Wardman & Fitsum Teklu & Nigel Harris, 2021. "The use of recovery time in timetables: rail passengers’ preferences and valuation relative to travel time and delays," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 337-368, February.
    13. Schubert, Daniel & Sys, Christa & Vanelslander, Thierry & Roumboutsos, Athena, 2022. "No-queue road pricing: A comprehensive policy instrument for Europe?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Mark Wardman & Phani Chintakayala & Chris Heywood, 2020. "The valuation and demand impacts of the worthwhile use of travel time with specific reference to the digital revolution and endogeneity," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1515-1540, June.
    15. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    16. Binsuwadan, Jawaher & Wardman, Mark & de Jong, Gerard & Batley, Richard & Wheat, Phill, 2023. "The income elasticity of the value of travel time savings: A meta-analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 126-136.
    17. Hörcher, Daniel & Tirachini, Alejandro, 2021. "A review of public transport economics," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    18. Lalive, Rafael & Luechinger, Simon & Schmutzler, Armin, 2018. "Does expanding regional train service reduce air pollution?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 744-764.
    19. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    20. Roberts, Bryan & Rose, Adam & Heatwole, Nathaniel & Wei, Dan & Avetisyan, Misak & Chan, Oswin & Maya, Isaac, 2014. "The impact on the US economy of changes in wait times at ports of entry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 162-175.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:46:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s11116-018-9889-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.