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Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations, elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain

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  • Mark Wardman
  • Richard Batley

Abstract

This paper provides an extensive review and reconciliation of British and European evidence relating to the value of, and demand responses to, rail reliability. In particular, we compare the elasticities implied by stated preference valuations of late time with directly estimated lateness elasticities. We find that the implied lateness elasticities are substantially greater than those directly estimated. A possible explanation for this is that lateness has been over-valued, but more sobering explanations would be to suggest that, whilst rail travellers dislike unreliability, they may be unwilling or unable to reduce their rail travel in response to experiences of poor performance, or else conventional economic approaches to deducing elasticities are not appropriate. The findings have been used to update the recommendations of the UK rail industry’s Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Mark Wardman & Richard Batley, 2014. "Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations, elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1041-1069, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:5:p:1041-1069
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-014-9526-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hollander, Yaron, 2006. "Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 699-711, November.
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    7. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy D. Shires & Manuel Ojeda-Cabral & Mark Wardman, 2019. "The impact of planned disruptions on rail passenger demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1807-1837, October.
    2. Smith, Andrew S.J. & Ojeda Cabral, Manuel, 2022. "Is higher quality always costly? Marginal costs of quality: Theory and application to railway punctuality," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 258-273.
    3. Manuel Ojeda-Cabral & Jeremy Shires & Mark Wardman & Fitsum Teklu & Nigel Harris, 2021. "The use of recovery time in timetables: rail passengers’ preferences and valuation relative to travel time and delays," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 337-368, February.
    4. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Wardman, Mark & Toner, Jeremy & Fearnley, Nils & Flügel, Stefan & Killi, Marit, 2018. "Review and meta-analysis of inter-modal cross-elasticity evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 662-681.
    6. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.

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