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On the relevance of earnings components in valuation and forecasting

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  • Pengguo Wang

Abstract

This paper articulates the links between relevance of an earnings component in forecasting (abnormal) earnings and its relevance in valuation in a nonlinear framework. The analysis shows that forecasting relevance does not imply valuation relevance even though valuation irrelevance is implied by forecasting irrelevance. Firstly, I consider an accounting information system where earnings components “add up” to a fully informative earnings number. Secondly, I analyze two accounting systems where a “core” earnings component is the relevant earnings construct for valuation and the second earnings component is irrelevant but may be predictable and relevant in forecasting other accounting items. I find that dividend displacement effect on earnings and the dynamics of individual earnings components are critical in this analysis. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Pengguo Wang, 2014. "On the relevance of earnings components in valuation and forecasting," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 399-413, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:42:y:2014:i:3:p:399-413
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-013-0347-y
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    1. James A. Ohlson, 1991. "The theory of value and earnings, and an introduction to the Ball†Brown analysis," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, September.
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    8. Huong Higgins, 2011. "Forecasting stock price with the residual income model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 583-604, May.
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    10. David Ashton & Terry Cooke & Mark Tippett & Pengguo Wang, 2004. "Linear information dynamics, aggregation, dividends and ‘dirty surplus’ accounting," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 277-299.
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    12. Barth, Mary E. & Beaver, William H. & Landsman, Wayne R., 1998. "Relative valuation roles of equity book value and net income as a function of financial health," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-34, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Blecher, 2019. "The influence of uncertainty on the standard-setting decision between fair value and historical cost accounting under asymmetric information," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 47-72, July.
    2. Iris Bergmann & Wolfgang Schultze, 2018. "Accounting based valuation: a simultaneous equations model for forecasting earnings to proxy for ‘other information’," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1057-1091, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valuation; Forecasting; Earnings components; Residual income valuation model; G17; G32; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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