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Decision-making in sequential projects: expected time-to-build and probability of failure

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  • Sascha Mölls
  • Karl-Heinz Schild

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  • Sascha Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2012. "Decision-making in sequential projects: expected time-to-build and probability of failure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-25, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:1-25
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-011-0240-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege & Liang Peng, 2008. "Venture Capital and Sequential Investments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1682R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2009.
    2. Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    6. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Moon, Mark, 2001. "Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 7-25, November.
    7. Gunther Friedl, 2002. "Sequential Investment And Time To Build," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 54(1), pages 56-79, January.
    8. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    9. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    10. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1996. "Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1097-1120.
    11. Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1993. "The Nature of Option Interactions and the Valuation of Investments with Multiple Real Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    13. Milne, Alistair & Whalley, A Elizabeth, 2000. "'Time to build, option value and investment decisions': a comment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 325-332, May.
    14. Chang-Wen Duan & William T. Lin & Cheng Few Lee, 2003. "Sequential Capital Budgeting as Real Options: The Case of a New DRAM Chipmaker in Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 87-112.
    15. Dixit, Avinash K., 1990. "Optimization in Economic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198772101.
    16. Panayi, Sylvia & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1998. "Multi-stage Real Options: The Cases of Information Technology Infrastructure and International Bank Expansion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 675-692.
    17. Carr, Peter, 1998. "Randomization and the American Put," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 597-626.
    18. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:23-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dixit, Avinash & Pindyck, Robert S & Sodal, Sigbjorn, 1999. "A Markup Interpretation of Optimal Investment Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 179-189, April.
    20. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. "Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-265, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Yu-Hong & Jiang, I-Ming, 2019. "Optimal proportion decision-making for two stages investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 776-785.
    2. Shu Feng & Chun-Yu Ho, 2016. "The real option approach to adoption or discontinuation of a management accounting innovation: the case of activity-based costing," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 835-856, October.
    3. Mark Holder & Aiwu Zhao, 2015. "Value exploration and materialization in diversification strategies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 175-213, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sequential investment; Real options; Decision-making; Time-to-build; Default-risk; C6; G31; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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