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Sequential Investment And Time To Build

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  • Gunther Friedl

Abstract

Real world investment decisions are generally made sequentially, over time. Management must consider the possibility of subsequent decisions like suspending a project when an initial investment decision is made. This consideration seems to be particularly important in the case of investments, which take a long time to build. In this paper, I analyze the impact of lags between the initial investment decision and the completion of the project. I also analyze in a dynamic setting under uncertainty the impact on the investment value of the option to suspend investment or operations and the investment threshold. I show that the standard net present value rule works well within my framework. This result contrasts with the main results in most of the real options literature. I use my model to value the length of permit procedures for locational decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Friedl, 2002. "Sequential Investment And Time To Build," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 54(1), pages 56-79, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbr:abstra:v:54:y:2002:i:1:p:56-79
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Harreiter & Thomas Pfeiffer & Georg Schneider, 2007. "Are real options more valuable in the presence of agency conflicts?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 185-207, November.
    2. Ardian, Aldin & Kumral, Mustafa, 2020. "Incorporating stochastic correlations into mining project evaluation using the Jacobi process," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Gilroy, Bernard Michael & Lukas, Elmar, 2006. "The choice between greenfield investment and cross-border acquisition: A real option approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 447-465, July.
    4. Pedro Godinho & João Paulo Costa, 2020. "A stochastic model and algorithms for determining efficient time–cost tradeoffs for a project activity," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 319-348, March.
    5. Sascha Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2012. "Decision-making in sequential projects: expected time-to-build and probability of failure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-25, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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