IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revind/v48y2016i1p29-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Success and Uncertainty Compel Interest in Related Goods: Playoff Probability and Out-of-Market Television Viewership in the National Football League

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Tainsky
  • Jie Xu
  • Brian Mills
  • Steven Salaga

Abstract

Professional sports league franchises are both on-field competitors and business partners. In this paper, we examine whether local franchise characteristics are associated with the consumption of goods that are produced by other franchises within the same league. Specifically, we investigate how uncertainty over whether the local market team reaches the postseason affects interest in out-of-market National Football League broadcasts. We find that consumers possess a conditional interest in other league contests depending on the degree to which the local franchise is in the race to reach the playoffs. This effect increases at a diminishing rate and reaches a maximum when local franchise playoff probability is approximately 60 %. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Tainsky & Jie Xu & Brian Mills & Steven Salaga, 2016. "How Success and Uncertainty Compel Interest in Related Goods: Playoff Probability and Out-of-Market Television Viewership in the National Football League," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 48(1), pages 29-43, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:48:y:2016:i:1:p:29-43
    DOI: 10.1007/s11151-015-9479-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11151-015-9479-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11151-015-9479-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fiona Carmichael & Janet Millington & Roberts Simmons, 1999. "Elasticity of demand for Rugby League attendance and the impact of BskyB," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(12), pages 797-800.
    2. E. J. Michael, 2003. "Tourism Micro-Clusters," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 133-145, June.
    3. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2007. "The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 199-211.
    4. Michael R. Butler, 2002. "Interleague Play and Baseball Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 320-334, November.
    5. Kenney, Martin & von Burg, Urs, 1999. "Technology, Entrepreneurship and Path Dependence: Industrial Clustering in Silicon Valley and Route 128," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 8(1), pages 67-103, March.
    6. Stuart S. Rosenthal & William C. Strange, 2003. "Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 377-393, May.
    7. Scott Tainsky & Jason Winfree, 2010. "Short-Run Demand and Uncertainty of Outcome in Major League Baseball," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 37(3), pages 197-214, November.
    8. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    9. Daniel A. Rascher & John Paul G. Solmes, 2007. "Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 2(3), pages 130-141, August.
    10. David Forrest & Rob Simmons & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "Broadcasting, Attendance and the Inefficiency of Cartels," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 5, pages 112-135, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Elisa Giuliani, 2007. "The selective nature of knowledge networks in clusters: evidence from the wine industry," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 139-168, March.
    12. Daniel, Rascher, 1999. "A Test of the Optimal Positive Production Network Externality in Major League Baseball," MPRA Paper 25832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. McDonald, Mark & Rascher, Daniel, 2000. "Does Bat Day Make Cents? The Effect of Promotions on the Demand for Major League Baseball," MPRA Paper 25739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-198, June.
    15. Whitney, James D, 1988. "Winning Games versus Winning Championships: The Economics of Fan Interest and Team Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 703-724, October.
    16. Glenn Knowles & Keith Sherony & Mike Haupert, 1992. "The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 36(2), pages 72-80, October.
    17. Jeff Borland, 1987. "The Demand for Australian Rules Football," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(3), pages 220-230, September.
    18. David Peel & Dennis Thomas, 1996. "Attendance demand: an investigation of repeat fixtures," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 391-394.
    19. Steven Salaga & Jason A. Winfree, 2015. "Determinants of Secondary Market Sales Prices for National Football League Personal Seat Licenses and Season Ticket Rights," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 227-253, April.
    20. Michael E. Porter, 2000. "Location, Competition, and Economic Development: Local Clusters in a Global Economy," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 14(1), pages 15-34, February.
    21. Scott Tainsky, 2010. "Television Broadcast Demand for National Football League Contests," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(6), pages 629-640, December.
    22. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-331.
    23. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    24. Steven Pinch & Nick Henry, 1999. "Paul Krugman's Geographical Economics, Industrial Clustering and the British Motor Sport Industry," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(9), pages 815-827.
    25. Yi-hsuan Chiang & Wen-jhan Jane, 2013. "The Effects of Outcome Uncertainties, Patriotism, and Asian Regionalism in the World Baseball Classic," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 148-161, September.
    26. repec:bla:ecorec:v:63:y:1987:i:182:p:220-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Hausman, Jerry A & Leonard, Gregory K, 1997. "Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(4), pages 586-624, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sung, Hojun & Mills, Brian M. & Tainsky, Scott, 2017. "From schadenfreude to mitfreude? Estimating viewership loss and rivalrous relationships in otherwise neutral markets," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 159-169.
    2. Jyh-How Huang & Chung-Yi Lu & Yu-Chia Hsu, 2023. "Potential Baseball Fan Engagement: The Determinants of a New Television Audience in the Chinese Professional Baseball League during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski & Dominik Schreyer, 2023. "Substitution Effects and the Transnational Demand for European Soccer Telecasts," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 407-442, May.
    4. Tim Wallrafen & Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2022. "Competition and Fan Substitution Between Professional Sports Leagues," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 61(1), pages 21-43, August.
    5. Brian M. Mills & Michael Mondello & Scott Tainsky, 2016. "Competition in shared markets and Major League Baseball broadcast viewership," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(32), pages 3020-3032, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott Tainsky & Jie Xu & Brian M. Mills & Steven Salaga, 2016. "How Success and Uncertainty Compel Interest in Related Goods: Playoff Probability and Out-of-Market Television Viewership in the National Football League," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 48(1), pages 29-43, February.
    2. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    3. Jigyu Chung & Young Hoon Lee & Joon-Ho Kang, 2016. "Ex Ante and Ex Post Expectations of Outcome Uncertainty and Baseball Television Viewership," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(8), pages 790-812, December.
    4. Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2012. "Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance," Working Papers 2012-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    5. Alexander John Bond & Francesco Addesa, 2020. "Competitive Intensity, Fans’ Expectations, and Match-Day Tickets Sold in the Italian Football Serie A, 2012-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(1), pages 20-43, January.
    6. Adam Cox, 2018. "Spectator Demand, Uncertainty of Results, and Public Interest," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 3-30, January.
    7. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills, 2018. "Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 519-532, December.
    8. Budzinski, Oliver & Feddersen, Arne, 2015. "Grundlagen der Sportnachfrage: Theorie und Empirie der Einflussfaktoren auf die Zuschauernachfrage," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 94, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    9. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    10. Brown, Katie M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "NCAA football television viewership: Product quality and consumer preference relative to market expectations," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 377-390.
    11. R. Alan Bowman & James Lambrinos & Thomas Ashman, 2013. "Competitive Balance in the Eyes of the Sports Fan," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(5), pages 498-520, October.
    12. Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2012. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 262-277, June.
    13. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    14. Petr A. Parshakov & Kseniya O. Baydina, 2017. "Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football," HSE Working papers WP BRP 163/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Misael Martinez & Jonathan Willner, 2017. "Competitive Balance and Consumer Demand in the English Football League," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 49-60, August.
    16. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
    18. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    19. Brian Mills & Rodney Fort, 2014. "League-Level Attendance And Outcome Uncertainty In U.S. Pro Sports Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 205-218, January.
    20. Dominik Schreyer & Benno Torgler, 2018. "On the Role of Race Outcome Uncertainty in the TV Demand for Formula 1 Grands Prix," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 211-229, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:48:y:2016:i:1:p:29-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.